Competition in LA-2?
Sure, LA-3 looks like a barn-burner between two wingnuts, Boustany and Landry. A Democrat could make the run-off if the two of them eliminate decimate each other in the jungle primary. However, in that run-off, it’s just not reasonable to expect a Democrat to beat even the most conservative candidate of the two. Jeff Landry easily beat moderate Dem Ravi Sangisetty in a run-off with a major statewide R v. D race on the ballot in 2010.
However, multiple tipsters have sent in notes to email@example.com regarding a potential challenge for Louisiana’s sole Democratic Congressman, Cedric Richmond.
According to all of these folks, former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial is contemplating a run against Richmond in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District.
Yes, a sitting Congressman, who was one of the few Congressman backed by President Obama in 2010, is facing a potential challenger. Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional is strongly Democratic with a Cook PVI of at least +25 (which hasn’t been recalculated for the new district, but will not doubt at least match the old). However, the reconfiguring has now included a lot more voters outside of New Orleans, Richmond’s home base. But isn’t that Morial’s base too?
After a little digging, it seems like Morial might be a strong candidate. He was mayor for 8 years, as leaving office in 2002, and his father was the first African-American Mayor of New Orleans, Dutch Morial. The Morial political organization, LIFE, is still active and currently boasts of at least 3 major elected officials including Citywide Assessor Erroll Williams, Sheriff Marlin Gusman and former State Senator Cynthia Willard-Lewis. LIFE is also said to be close to Mayor Mitch Landrieu, and is rumored to have worked hard behind the scenes to secure Landrieu’s easy win in 2010.
Morial is currently the president of the National Urban League, and apparently a very popular Mayor. But could this be enough to unseat a sitting Congressman?
Certainly seems like a stretch. Democrats don’t need an internecine fight on their hands in Louisiana. All the same, the seat is safely in Democratic hands so perhaps it’s not important who the Congressman is afterall. Morial looks like a heavy-weight of the old school compared to the relatively green Richmond.
Taking a look at Richmond’s FEC filing for March, he certainly doesn’t look too worried about having a competitive race:
|From: 01/01/2011 To: 03/31/2012|
As you can see from this printout, Richmond has only $251,513 on hand, but carries debts of $174,446, making his net cash reserve only about $80,000. That ain’t much for a real Congressional race. But an incumbent like Richmond shouldn’t have trouble getting some cash to go to war. If he has to…