Competition in LA-2?

With only one legitimate Democratic seat available to Louisiana Dems, this year’s Congressional elections were looking like they’d be a snore for the Blue team.

Maybe not.

Sure, LA-3 looks like a barn-burner between two wingnuts, Boustany and Landry. A Democrat could make the run-off if the two of them eliminate decimate each other in the jungle primary. However, in that run-off, it’s just not reasonable to expect a Democrat to beat even the most conservative candidate of the two. Jeff Landry easily beat moderate Dem Ravi Sangisetty in a run-off with a major statewide R v. D race on the ballot in 2010.

However, multiple tipsters have sent in notes to thedailykingfish@gmail.com regarding a potential challenge for Louisiana’s sole Democratic Congressman, Cedric Richmond.

According to all of these folks, former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial is contemplating a run against Richmond in Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District.

Yes, a sitting Congressman, who was one of the few Congressman backed by President Obama in 2010, is facing a potential challenger. Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional is strongly Democratic with a Cook PVI of at least +25 (which hasn’t been recalculated for the new district, but will not doubt at least match the old). However, the reconfiguring has now included a lot more voters outside of New Orleans, Richmond’s home base. But isn’t that Morial’s base too?

After a little digging, it seems like Morial might be a strong candidate. He was mayor for 8 years, as leaving office in 2002, and his father was the first African-American Mayor of New Orleans, Dutch Morial. The Morial political organization, LIFE, is still active and currently boasts of at least 3 major elected officials including Citywide Assessor Erroll Williams, Sheriff Marlin Gusman and former State Senator Cynthia Willard-Lewis. LIFE is also said to be close to Mayor Mitch Landrieu, and is rumored to have worked hard behind the scenes to secure Landrieu’s easy win in 2010.

Morial is currently the president of the National Urban League, and apparently a very popular Mayor. But could this be enough to unseat a sitting Congressman?

Certainly seems like a stretch. Democrats don’t need an internecine fight on their hands in Louisiana. All the same, the seat is safely in Democratic hands so perhaps it’s not important who the Congressman is afterall. Morial looks like a heavy-weight of the old school compared to the relatively green Richmond.

Taking a look at Richmond’s FEC filing for March, he certainly doesn’t look too worried about having a competitive race:

Candidate Details
From: 01/01/2011  To: 03/31/2012
COMMITTEE INFORMATION
RICHMOND FOR CONGRESS C00451336
1631 ELYSIAN FIELDS Type: HOUSE
NEW ORLEANS, LA 70126 Designation: PRINCIPAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE OF A CANDIDATE
Filing Frequency: QUARTERLY FILER
Treasurer: GAINES, MAPLE
FINANCIAL SUMMARY
From: 01/01/2011   To: 03/31/2012
I. RECEIPTS
Itemized Individual Contributions $234,150
Unitemized Individual Contributions $5,339
Party Committees Contributions $0
Other Committees Contributions $354,536
Candidate Contributions $0
TOTAL CONTRIBUTIONS $594,025
Transfers from Authorized Committees $0
Candidate Loans $0
Other Loans $0
TOTAL LOANS $0
Operating Expenditures Offsets $4,835
Other Receipts $353
TOTAL RECEIPTS $599,215
II. DISBURSEMENTS
Operating Expenditures $304,584
Transfers To Authorized Committees $0
Candidate Loan Repayments $0
Other Loan Repayments $0
TOTAL LOAN REPAYMENTS $0
Individual Refunds $0
Political Party Refunds $0
Other Committee Refunds $0
TOTAL CONTRIBUTION REFUNDS $0
Other Disbursements $46,388
TOTAL DISBURSEMENTS $350,972
III. CASH SUMMARY
Ending Cash On Hand $251,513
Net Contributions $594,025
Net Operating Expenditures $299,748
Debts Owed By $174,446
Debts Owed To $383

As you can see from this printout, Richmond has only $251,513 on hand, but carries debts of $174,446, making his net cash reserve only about $80,000. That ain’t much for a real Congressional race. But an incumbent like Richmond shouldn’t have trouble getting some cash to go to war. If he has to…

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About Lamar Parmentel

www.dailykingfish.com lead curator; enjoyer of bourbon, the dynasty and the beverage. Reside in New Orleans. Louisiane peut vivre éternellement

Posted on May 27, 2012, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. 3 Comments.

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