Truly Skewed Polling Bites Back: Diaper Dave’s Vanguard
Don’t look now, but the 2015 Governor’s race is over. David Vitter is your new Governor. And the little shop of horrors that is the 4th floor of the capitol just got a new haunt.
Wait, you say it can be true? It’s only 2012? And People actually have to vote on these things? Three years from now?
We won’t spoil the fun.
David Vitter’s pollster conducted an extensive, although strangely weighted, poll to confirm their own suspicious. Diaper Dave is just killing it. Says his own pollster, John Diez:
Magellan principal John Diez, who released the poll, moved to Baton Rouge in 2006 to become executive director of Vitter’s Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority. The committee’s website still listed Diez as executive director Monday.
But, the kicker is that Vitter DENIES that he has anything to do with this poll. Starting off with the lying early, huh Diaper Dave? From the office of one of Congress’ “Most Corrupt Members,”:
Vitter’s spokesman, Luke Bolar, said the senator neither backed nor funded the poll.
Laughable. Surely he couldn’t fund it, creating a paper trail and such. But “backing it”? That’s a wide berth of semantic yardage. But let’s move on.
Here are the top lines: (and now to the video tape…)
LA-GOV: 2015 – If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the
candidates were DAVID VITTER, REPUBLICAN, MITCH LANDRIEU DEMOCRAT; JAY DARDENNE, REPUBLICAN; JOHN KENNEDY, REPUBLICAN; MIKE STRAIN, REPUBLICAN and JOHN GEORGES, DEMOCRAT?
- DAVID VITTER 31.1%
- MITCH LANDRIEU 29.4%
- JAY DARDENNE 6.5%
- JOHN KENNEDY 7.2%
- MIKE STRAIN 3.1%
- JOHN GEORGES 6.0%
- UND/SOMEONE ELSE 16.7%
So, an open primary full of big money candidates (Georges spent a small fortune on his 2007 Governor’s race, and his 2010 Mayor’s race in New Orleans), David Vitter runs within the margin of error with Mitch Landrieu. That can’t be considered a “win,” can it? That bodes well for Mitchell, and therefore, for Democrats.
We’ll deal with the strange poll sampling later, but suffice to say, these are good numbers for Mitchell.
And still thinking ahead to the 2015 election for Governor in Louisiana. 8. If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were DAVID VITTER, REPUBLICAN and MITCH LANDRIEU DEMOCRAT?
- DAVID VITTER 45.2%
- MITCH LANDRIEU 39.8%
- UNDECIDED 15.0%
So, a +5 margin in a head to head? Great for Diaper Dave, right? Hmmm, maybe not so much. Cenlamar does a little digging:
Magellan’s poll is fraught with disastrous flaws: It severely oversamples white Republicans, by at least 15 points; it’s not proportionate among Congressional districts; its methodology and questioning are leading and disingenuous. It’s heavily skewed toward conservatives, which is not surprising; after all, it was led by a Vitter-man. And there’s hardly any mention of Bobby Jindal or his policies; Vitter isn’t even slightly interested in how Jindal is polling.
The kicker: How great is David Vitter doing at his job? According to his own pollster, Mr. Diez, pretty god damn great:
And do you approve or disapprove of the job that DAVID VITTER is doing as U.S. SENATOR?
- APPROVE 59.1%
- DISAPPROVE 33.2%
- UNSURE/NO OPINION 7.7%
In the SMOR poll last week, Vitter was looking at 52.3 fav, 31.3 unfav. Not bad, but below Senator Mary Landrieu’s 53.7/28.4 rating.
Now, of course, we see a completely different story:
What appears to be a conflict in the polls centers on Democratic U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu. In Pinsonat’s poll, Landrieu has the highest job performance rating of any of Louisiana’s elected officials with 61.7 percent favorable (12.1 percent excellent and 49.6 percent good). In Diez’s poll 39.5 percent said they would vote to re-elect her but 50.8 percent said they would prefer someone else. The others wouldn’t say.
Oh well, nothing to see here. Read more on Vitter’s vanity poll @ Cenlamar.