| In a poll conducted for a consortium of news outlets here in Louisiana by respected Louisiana pollster Ed Renwick of Loyola University, conducted between October 24 and 26 of 500 registered voters statewide and has a margin of error of 4.5%:
Now, for those of you wondering if it is possible for Obama to pull out Louisiana, let me give you some numbers:
The black vote is going to go 90% or higher for Obama. There are 885,797 black voters in the State of Louisiana. Let's be conservative and assume 90%70% of them turn out, and Obama gets 90% of that vote, which is what John Kerry Al Gore received among black voters in 2004 2000 nationally.
885,797 * .90.70 = 797,217 620,058 black voters voting
797,217 620,058 * .90.70 = 717,495 558,052 voting for Obama
There are only 2,908,342 registered voters total in the State of Louisiana. You cut that in half, and you get 1,454,171 + 1 = 1,454,172 to win outright, assuming a 100% turnout.
1,454,172 - 717,495 558,052 = 736,677 896,120 white voters Obama would need in an election that has 100% turnout. That's would mean Obama has to pull 38% 47% of the white vote to win. But that's assuming a 100% turnout, y'all.
The high water mark for a Louisiana election in terms of turnout was the Edwin Edwards - David Duke gubernatorial election in 1991, when 78.9% of registered voters voted.
So, let's assume we tie the high-water mark, y'all:
2,908,342 * .789 = 2,294,682
2,294,682 * .50 = 1,147,341 + 1 = 1,147,342 to win
Using the same #'s from black voters as before, that means Obama needs to capture the votes of 429,847 589,290 white voters. That's a mere 22.6% 31% of white voters.
This is a single digit election, y'all. Obama can win Louisiana. It will be difficult, but not impossible. If you are a Democrat, and you want to be celebrating a return to a government that looks out for the little guy, and you have family or friends in the great state of Louisiana, then you have to get on the phone and talk to them. If you live here, you have to talk to your family, friends, neighbors, co-workers, and tell them to vote for Obama.
LEAVE IT ON THE FIELD, y'all. LEAVE IT ON THE FIELD. |
