Louisiana General Elections Post-Mortem

by: ryan

Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 18:09:52 PM CST


I write today with mixed feelings about this campaign season. While I am elated that this nation has seen fit to send Barack Obama to the White House, I am not surprised that Louisiana did not put her 9 Electoral Votes in Mr. Obama's column. I am however, looking into buying a "Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Obama" bumper sticker for my car when I go out of state in it.

I am elated that Senator Mary Landrieu won her campaign relatively easily. Did you notice that you can drop Orleans Parish from the totals, and she STILL would have won? This means that no Democrat running a state-wide campaign from here on out should even think about not running a state-wide field operation. That field operation, which contacted many Democrats for the first time in years(!), gave Senator Landrieu her impressive margin.

I am not surprised that Jim Harlan lost in LA-01. It's unfortunate, but the results of this election show that there is much, much, much more work to be done. I don't anticipate seeing a Democrat elected in that district for some time to come.

I am incredibly upset about the result in LA-06. I'll have more to write on this one later, but suffice it to say that I hope someone out there sees fit to give Mr. Cassidy hell for the next two years by starting a blog marking his every move for the next two years, to make it a little easier for any Democrat that decides to run against Mr. Cassidy in two years in terms of opposition research. Here's one such example of a fine blog tracking a Republican Member of Congress.

I am disappointed in the result in LA-07. But I am optimistic about State Senator Don Cravins, Jr. I think he has a future in the Democratic Party of this state since he's only 38, and the fact that he started the campaign LATE. Hopefully, if he decides to run again, he'll start the fundraising process in January, and continue to meet with voters throughout the 7th District during the two years.

One of the things that stands out to me about this election season is that the candidates that tried to out-Republican the real Republicans in their races LOST. Mr. Harlan, Mr. Cazayoux, Mr. Cravins, Jr ... all ran ads emphasizing their pro-life, pro-gun views. That's all good and fine ONCE.

In LA-01, all of Mr. Harlan's ads mentioned that he was pro-life and pro-gun.

In LA-06, quite a few of Mr. Cazayoux's ads mentioned his conservative views. This is NOT a completely conservative district. Yes, the voters are culturally conservative, but they will vote for a pro-union Democrat. A majority of them did on Tuesday.

In LA-07, Mr. Cravins ran four ads - 2 focusing on him ... one on his conservative views, and the other on how he's a church-going man.

The Republican playbook is to smear Democrats on the cultural issues. There is nothing we can do about that. They're going to do it even when it is obvious that the Democratic candidate has the same views on the cultural issues as the Republican does! Focus on why you're a Democrat. Remind people that there are other issues to consider ... like the economy, health care, the environment, and on and on. And do it not only on the stump, where few voters see you, but also on television.

The results in our congressional elections affirm Howard Dean's message of 2004: If voters are given a choice between a Republican and Republican-lite, they'll choose the real Republican every single time.

ryan :: Louisiana General Elections Post-Mortem
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So... where are the bright spots during the Obama Administration? (0.00 / 0)
My gut instinct (and a couple of conversations with others suggests it) says we need to look forward to three things.

1. Restoration of the Fairness Doctrine. Now, while this won't stop the MSM fixation on 'horse race'-style coverage ('flag pins', anyone?), it will likely clip the wings of AM Radio and Fox News (and to a lesser extent, MSNBC's newfound liberalism). I'd expect fierce hostility to it, but if it succeeds, it will dramatically change the tenor of coverage on TV and radio.

2. The Employee Free Choice Act. The AFL-CIO suggests that it will bring 60 million more workers into unions. Even at a fraction of that number, it dramatically improves the situation, even in right-to-work states. A stronger labor movement will likely reinvigorate the Democratic Party even in bright-red state like ours.

3. Improved access to health care - Who knows what form the Obama admin will deliver, but any improved access will be VERY popular, and will become another third-rail issue that, like social security, the GOP will be terrified of touching.


That title should be... (0.00 / 0)
"where are the bright spots for the Democratic Party in Louisiana during the Obama Administration"

[ Parent ]
So, let's look at some year-over-year election breakdowns (0.00 / 0)
Year Democratic Vote Republican Vote Other Vote Total
1992 815,971 733,386 Perot - 211,478
1996 927,837 712,586 Perot - 123,293
2000 792,344 927,871 Nader - 20,473
2004 820,299 1,102,169 -
2008 780,981 1,147,680 -

So, in the past 16 years, (excluding 1996), presidential Democratic turnout hovers right around 800 thousand votes. These are rock-solid votes. But, even with the increased African-American turnout this time (29% of the overall turnout, compared to the normal 25%), it wasn't enough to tackle lost African-American voters post-Katrina. It's also fair to say that a number of white Democrats defected or stayed home. That overall number is presently unknown.

But, here's the bigger problem: The GOP have been making steady strides in this state, adding 400 thousand new voters over the past 16 years. The state's population growth cannot simply account for it. What we're seeing - what's they're doing and we're not, is growing the base. This means luring new voters, recruiting new people to the party. Labor used to be our means of doing that.

At present, I doubt if any amount of 'triangulation' or adopting socially conservative issues is going to be a long-term winning strategy. It may work for Mary, and for this or that Dem. But, long-term, we need to grow our base.


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