If Democrats own healthcare, we can own the Governor's Mansion in 2012

by: Mike Stagg

Mon Oct 26, 2009 at 23:39:25 PM CDT


(Pretty good analysis of the opt-out version of the Public Option.  Whether the progressives in the House allow the opt-out to pass is an open question.   - promoted by ryan)

(Originally posted at Louisianad2d)

It's not often that Harry Reid and Alan Levine team up on anything, but they did today in laying out the path to Democratic success in Louisiana in the 2011 statewide elections.

That path will be healthcare. Specifically, it will be Governor Bobby Jindal's ideological rigidity on taxes in the face of what will be draconian (criminal?) cuts in healthcare in the state budget over the next two years. With healthcare and higher education still the only funding streams not constitutionally protected and the state facing a billion dollar revenue shortfall, Jindal will force the Legislature to make heavy cuts in both programs.

Last week, the Baton Rouge Advocate carried a story saying the higher education cuts will amount to 60 percent over the next two years. No mention of healthcare, but that's where the bulk of the cuts will be and for two reasons. First, that's where the money is (Medicaid is a $6 billion program). Secondly, no one in the Legislature is lobbying to protect the interests of the poor, the handicapped and those with special needs — the victims of these coming cuts. Oh, the hospitals, nursing homes and doctors will object, but you won't see anything resembling the "Intervention at the Mansion" earlier this year where all of the non-imprisoned former governors got together to tell the Boy Governor that he just could not cut $200 million-plus from higher education.

No notables stood up for Medicaid clients then. And none will do it in the coming session.

They are, in the current world of Louisiana politics, "expendable."

Mike Stagg :: If Democrats own healthcare, we can own the Governor's Mansion in 2012

That's what happens when Democrats forget who they are and who they represent and buy into the conceit that they can get elected if they run as 'Republican-lite' candidates. Ultimately, they are not Democrats and their votes show it.

Today, Jindal's DHH Secretary Alan Levine dropped the first of what will be many shoes. According to The Advocate, he announced another round of Medicaid budget cuts made necessary because of rising enrollments in the program and the inability of the department to implement cuts fast enough. Poverty is up in Louisiana. Unemployment is up. The number of companies offering health insurance coverage is falling through the floor.

So, Levine, working within Jindal's "No Taxes for Any Reason" straight jacket, is ordering more cuts. This is, of course, a result of issues in the current fiscal year. This isn't even related to the even bigger cuts that will be needed next year.

Senator Harry Reid handed Louisiana Democrats a gift today by including the Public Option in the bill that the U.S. Senate will debate and vote on in a couple of weeks. Word is that the bill will include an "opt out" clause for states to leave the public option.

Is there any doubt as to which way the Jindal administration and Louisiana Republicans will lurch on this? Levine has been taking part in Louisiana Republican Party workshops talking against healthcare reform. Jindal's path to the national Republican stage requires he follow the party's rejectionist strategy, so he will clearly push to have the state opt out of the public option.

But, here's where it gets interesting.

Depending on the year, anywhere between 17 and 25 percent of working age Louisiana adults are uninsured. In July, the Baton Rouge Business Report quoted a spokesman for BlueCross/BlueShield of Louisiana who said that only 30 percent of Louisiana small businesses offer health insurance to their employees and that the number is falling due to skyrocketing rates.

While no one will speak up for Medicaid patients, surely someone will speak up for the rights of the working uninsured and fight the Jindal administration's expected push to, in fact, opt out of the public option — the path to provide affordable coverage to those working age residents without coverage.

The 2011 statewide elections will be the battle ground where this fight takes place. Jindal, if he follows his current course, will have cut higher education by three-quarters of a billion dollars. He will have cut a billion in healthcare spending, eliminating services, shutting institutions, impacting the families of the disabled, the sick and the infirm.

This election will take place on a re-districted state Legislative map. Every district will be redrawn, and it will be pretty radically different due to post-2005/2008 storm induced population shifts.

Democrats should be easy to distinguish from Republicans. The Republicans will be the ones saying they are sorry for the pain, injury and even deaths their cuts inflicted, but that they had no choice. Democrats will be the candidates motivated by outrage at the callous, depraved disregard for the health and well-being of their fellow citizens.

Jindal will be vulnerable in 2011. He will have revealed that everything said about him in 2003 was true — that his knowledge of numbers is matched only by his inability to see the people behind the numbers in state budgets and programs. The healthcare ads that Kathleen Blanco ran against him in 2003 — those credited with sealing her victory then — will ring prophetic.

This man is devoid of compassion and is blinded by his ambition. Our state is paying — and will pay — a fearful price for his limitations.

But, elections are about changing course.

Harry Reid has just set up Louisiana Democrats to take our state back, to walk it back from the brink.

It will be a hard fight — beating incumbents always is. The Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority (David Vitter's homage to Tom DeLay) did not quite succeed in taking over either house of the Legislature, but they succeeded just enough to give Jindal the ability to defeat tax increases that could stave off some of these cuts. They will also work to ensure that the re-districting process is skewed to favor Republicans.

They, too, are setting him up for defeat — and the members of the House and Senate they sent there to do their ideologically driven work.

The world has shifted. They have not changed. The opportunity to oust them is ripening.

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Uninsured Count? (0.00 / 0)
You mean 17 to 25 PERCENT of working-age Louisiana adults, right?  I did a double take on that one...  25 uninsured adults aren't enough to get me out rallying for healthcare reform.

Right. Thanks! (0.00 / 0)
It is now corrected. Thanks!

[ Parent ]
the one caveat that... (0.00 / 0)
...i would add to this analysis is that a lot also hinges on job numbers...which seems to create an odd situation in louisiana.

if jobs begin to recover in 2010 and 2011, this will help democrats nationally--but an improving jobs market should also help any incumbent governor running for re-election, unless that state lags behind the national recovery.

thoughts?

--"outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. inside of a dog it's too dark to read." --groucho marx


Louisiana and the nation are out of sync . . . (4.00 / 1)
economically and politically.

There is a near $1 Billion budget deficit awaiting legislators when they convene in Regular Session next spring. Once again, healthcare and higher education are the only unprotected areas where cuts will be made.

There was a story in The Advocate a while back (linked to in this post) about a 60 percent cut in higher education funding in the works.

This past week, DHH announced that there is a $300 million deficit in the Medicaid budget (only $59 million of which is state dollars), so more cuts will be coming there.

In the 2010-11 fiscal year, the state will be $600 million short in Medicaid funding. Using the at least 3-to-1 federal-state matching formula, that translates into a $1.8 billion cut in Medicaid in the next fiscal year!

Higher education folks and businesses who recognize the importance of it were big Jindal supporters in 2007. The cuts last year were so alarming that it prompted the "intervention of the four governors" to try to talk some sense into the Boy Governor. They managed to get the higher education cuts reduced from $220 million to $110.

Who will stand up to Jindal now on higher ed and healthcare now that he's gotten his whiff of the national media attention he so craves? The party is in the hands of the Tea-ers and that will re-enforce his disinclination to support any kind of taxes to offset any of the calamitous cuts that will result from these shortfalls.

If Democrats are willing to focus on the people behind those budget numbers, we can awaken people to the shallowness of this governor and the bankrupt policies of his administration.


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