(Bringing this back up to the top, in case anyone missed it! - promoted by Matt B)
As summer sets in and Louisiana yet again finds itself in crisis, many folks are looking towards November to see what if anything recent primaries held throughout the country tell us of our political future.Charlie Melancon is challenging Senator David “Serious Sin” Vitter, Congressman Cao at least on paper seems to be toast and political newcomer Ravi Sangisetty could keep the LA3 in Democratic hands… or…
Nationally pundits can’t seem to stop themselves from pontificating the end of one party or the other using the party primaries in Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Kentucky as their crystal ball.Yet I think many of them are missing the point – what can be learned from these races and what, if anything, does it say for the November results.
Arlen Specter, long time Republican turned Democrat for what appears to be only due to self preservation went down to General turned Congressman Joe Sestak.The “party bosses” from the President through the Governor all supported Specter – yet Sestak won.In Kentucky’s Republican Senate primary Dr. Rand Paul won hands down against the “establishment” choice.And in Arkansas Democratic incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln is facing a difficult fight with Lt. Governor Bill Halter because she couldn’t muster the support of at least 50% of the Democratic Primary voters to save her position.In all of these cases I think the lesson that can be learned is – “ignore your constituents to your own peril.”
Specter clearly had his own skin as his motivating factor and Sestak caught it on tape and used it against him.Lincoln is in a state where polls showed that well over 65% of the population and almost 90% of Democratic Voters supported Healthcare Reform – yet she fought against it tooth and nail.And in Kentucky “Tea Party” favorite Rand Paul pulls out a win against Party insiders largely due to a revolt against the establishment.Now, most of the country is learning more than they ever cared to about “libertarian views” a la debating the Civil Rights Act.
Points that must be made…In Kentucky with all the “air” being sucked up by the Republican Primary one missed the point that Democrats turned out 3 to 2 at the polls to send state Attorney General Jack Conway to November.So much for Democrats being demoralized and not interested, huh?
But what does this say for our chances here in Louisiana.We have to look at the races: (those races after the jump)
Congressman Melancon vs. Senator Vitter:Clearly Vitter was weakened by his “serious sin” admission and this has demoralized his “moral values” backers.But you can see that he is now working on his “not only NO, but HELL NO” attitude towards the Democratic Administration.Vitter even blocked for several months the nomination of the person to head up FEMA.Melancon on the other hand would seem on PAPER at least to be a great candidate to face Vitter with his “weaknesses.”However it seems that Melancon is having a very difficult time in uniting party faithful behind him.In my travels throughout the state I keep hearing from leaders telling me “where is he?” and “why hasn’t he contacted us?” from groups that are easily considered the Democratic Base.African American groups, the LGBT community, Veterans and many others are all saying – “where is this Charlie Melancon?”
I met this week with young democratic leaders from all over the state and one stated to me… “Have you been to his office?Everywhere it says – Focus on Women.”While I agree that Women are an especially important demographic and I am quite sure that Charlie’s message with resonate with them.I am nervous that little or no focus is being placed on ANY other constituency group or sub constituency. Given how the results happened in the other states, I don’t know what lesson should be applied here other than – “Get your base behind you!”Vitter is attempting this – though Melancon seems to be jumping ahead to bringing in NEW supporters before he even has a base.Melancon still has time to reach out to these groups.The real question needs to be – Who is advising him and why in the hell is he not engaging the base?Take a point from Mary Landrieu – far from a progressive on most issues, Landrieu knows that she had to have the base solidly behind her and her votes show that – along with having top notch surrogates working hard for her in each election cycle.I hope that Charlie takes that page from her playbook - soon.
Vitter also has some major issues with regards to potential turn out because much of the state there will be little else on the ballot other than this race as there do not look to be serious challengers in districts 1, 4, 5, 6, & 7.This means his demoralized voters; the “Values Voters” are going to really need to be courted to give them a reason to vote.As Jeremy Alford reported this week in The Independent the leaders of the “Values Voters” are already spinning the “serious sin” – but will it work with voters?
The Louisiana Second Congressional district is also especially interesting.Due to the political reality we find ourselves in and the fluke that resulted in the election of Congressman Cao – Democrats appear to have an amazing chance to take back a seat here.This district is overwhelmingly Democratic and while Cao has several times voted with the Democrats – on the big points he voted against the President.This is going to seriously hurt him in November.The only saving grace he could find is in a blood bath in the Democratic Primary.Democrats in the second have a history of being so divided that it is close to impossible for them to unite behind ONE Democrat.I can’t tell you how many Democrats I heard tell me that they were supporting Jefferson because “with his problems that means the seat opens up soon.”Right now it would seem that State Rep. Juan LaFonta is the underdog facing State Rep. Cedrick Richmond.But a lot can chance and likely will in this race as we all sit back and watch to see if someone else could perhaps get into this race.
Perhaps most interesting of all the races is what is going on in the Louisiana Third congressional race.This is the seat that Melancon is vacating to pursue his Senate race.It appears to have quite a full field of candidates on the Republican side – a race that is definitely going to get heated.All the while Democratic Candidate Ravi Sangisetty may be able to skate all the way into the November General Election unscathed with a large war chest.Ravi has consistently been the top fundraiser after priming his election account with some of his own money, he also seems to be reaching out to all of the political bases that Melancon appears to be taking for granted.Can this be enough? Will Republicans bloody themselves so much that whoever faces Sangisetty come November that they are already tainted goods?Sure will be interesting to watch.One thing is for sure when you look at the demographics of this district.We are talking about hard working Men and Women who have been dealt one insult and injury after another – Katrina and now the oil spill.A champion who is going to fight for them is what voters will be looking for – and I think Sangisetty is building that support.
So back to the premise of this post – Asking the question of – “What do the May Primaries say about November for Louisiana?” One thing the numbers say to me is – The long predicted enthusiasm gap on the Democratic side of things doesn’t exist when there is a progressive candidate.Other than that, I don’t know that they say too much for us here in Louisiana, save that it is not a good season to be an incumbent – especially one who is not listening to his base.
Stephen Handwerk (Daily Kingfish Senior Contributor) is the National Chairman of Stonewall Democrats PAC and is on the State Democratic Party Executive Committee, DSCC and Lafayette DPEC. He lives in Lafayette with his partner of 9 years.
