LA-06: Parish by Parish Breakdown - Livingston and Ascension

by: Matt D

Wed Mar 12, 2008 at 04:48:25 AM CDT


This is the third of a series of posts on the voter turnout throughout the 6th CD in Louisiana.  You can view the first post here. In that post, I analyzed the voter turnout in Pointe Coupee Parish and West Feliciana Parish, which are on the northwestern edge of this district.  You can view the second post here, where I analyzed turnout in East Feliciana and St. Helena Parishes.  Today, we continue the series below the flip, looking at turnout in Livingston and Ascension parishes in the southeastern corner of this district.  

UPDATE: special thanks to Ara Rubyan, who pointed out my late-night insomnia-induced math problems.

Matt D :: LA-06: Parish by Parish Breakdown - Livingston and Ascension
Livingston: Democratic Primary
TotalPctCandidate
2,424 61.43% "Don" Cazayoux
342 8.67% Jason DeCuir
222 5.63% Joe Delatte
207 5.25% Michael Jackson
751 19.03% "Andy" Kopplin

Livingston: Republican Primary
TotalPctCandidate
1,120 26.65% Laurinda L. Calongne
41 .98% Michael Cloonan
2,264 53.87% Louis "Woody" Jenkins
778 18.51% Paul Sawyer

Livingston Parish Facts:
Pop: 114,805
White/Black (pct): 93.6/4.8
Bush/Kerry (pct): 76.78/22.36

Make no mistake: Livingston Parish is solidly Republican, and in many ways the largest demographic anomaly in the district.
Where most of the other parishes have either relatively even black/white populations, or ones that match the state proportion (64% white / 34% black), Livingston is the whitest parish in the district. Not only that, Livingston is the whitest parish in the state. (The 'richest parish' distinction is held, and disputed, by EBR, St. Tammany, and Jefferson).

In recent years, the exodus to Livingston by parents preferring majority-white schools has created quite a few suburban communities in the parish, and it's been the fastest growing parish in Louisiana for most years of the past decade.

Incidentally: This is the only parish in the metro area where Clinton outperformed Obama.

So, it's fair to say that Livingston Parish voters tend to be more politically conservative, and likely to vote down racial lines.

This district is also referred to as Jenkins' 'base' by the media, as it represents a solid bloc of votes that he can successfully turn out.

Even, here, in Bush Country, Democratic turnout was robust, totaling 3,946 to the Republicans' 4203.

Ascension: Democratic Primary
TotalPctCandidate
725 57.31% "Don" Cazayoux
143 11.30% Jason DeCuir
38 3.00% Joe Delatte
129 10.20% Michael Jackson
230 18.18% "Andy" Kopplin

Ascension: Republican Primary
TotalPctCandidate
576 32.76% Laurinda L. Calongne
16 .91% Michael Cloonan
872 49.60% Louis "Woody" Jenkins
294 16.72% Paul Sawyer

Ascension Parish Facts:
Pop: 97.335
White/Black (pct): 77.0/21.4
Bush/Kerry (pct): 63.07/35.69

Ascension, is, in many ways the most logical 'competitor' to Livingston, for new growth within the Baton Rouge area. Ascension can be likened to Livingston, but with a few key variables tweaked (I-10 instead of I-12, Catholic instead of Protestant, Swamp instead of Piney Woods). Ascension has a large industrial base (meaning more union members) and a larger black population, making it a more amenable (but not by much) to Democrats. It's also the home of John Diez, Jr. the head of Louisiana's Committee for a Republican Majority.

Ascension, due to gerrymandering with districts, only has a tiny slice of its overall population within district bounds. Nevertheless, this segment is larger, population-wise than St. Helena.

Cazayoux acquired a majority in four parishes, his home parish of Pointe Coupée, West Baton Rouge (which partially lies in his state house district), Livingston, and here.

Strangely, Ascension and Livingston seem to buck the turnout trends. Here, Dems scored 1,265 total, compared to 1,758 for the Republicans. I'm open to explanations.

Next up: Iberville and West Baton Rouge

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Are you sure the Livingston Parish numbers are correct? (0.00 / 0)
They look virtually identical to the final results for the entire district.

You are correct. Fixing now. (0.00 / 0)


For one of the fastest growing parishes in the state (0.00 / 0)
It has abyssmal turnout.  I think it may just be apathy, but you wouldn't think so after their recent battle over the school district there.

Let's see (0.00 / 0)
The 'gold standard' for max turnout is always presidential elections, so, let's see:

In Nov 2004:
9,895 22.36% Kerry
33,976   76.78% Bush

Okay, so: 43,871 voters (this might have been buoyed by the gay marriage amendment as well).

And for this, the first of three elections in a special seat:
4,203 Republican
3,946 Democrat

So: 8,149 voters. 1/5 of the 'normal' turnout.

If you want to play with numbers, it's telling that
Democratic turnout is: 39.88% of the normal
Republican turnout is: 12.37% of the normal


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