Depending on how you look at it, the Cook Political Report downrated (GOP chances to retain this seat) or uprated (Democratic chances to win this seat) the race for this seat. [The Cook Political Report is subscription-only, sorry] To wit:
Insiders on both sides agree the nomination of the current favorites - moderate Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux and GOP newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins - would present something akin to a perfect storm for Democrats in the May 3rd special general election.
Cazayoux, much like neighboring Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon did in 2004, could very plausibly take advantage of GOP disunity and use his rural background to cut into the heart of the district's GOP base. And in this political environment, Republicans would even be unwise to discount [Democratic state Rep.] Michael Jackson's bid were he to win the Democratic nomination. The presence of a third candidate in the general election, Independent former congressional aide Ashley Casey, could further endanger GOP chances of holding this seat. Casey has pledged to caucus with Republicans in the House if elected and has embarked on a decently funded effort to win the votes of moderate Republicans unsatisfied with the current crop of GOP candidates.
Yeah, Ashley Casey is an independent ... pledging to caucus with the GOP? Seriously? Expect to see more of this throughout the cycle, Republicans afraid to express their Republican bona-fides in fear that the GOP brand has taken a hit after 8 years of their dear leader, George W. Bush. Hell, one of Woody's first commercials out there don't even mention that he's a Republican!
The results of the March 8th special primary illustrated Republicans' problems in this race. Like many in the South, this Baton Rouge-based district's track record at the federal level (it gave President Bush 59 percent in 2004) flies in the face of its party registration breakdown (49.6 percent Democratic to 28.1 percent Republican). But in the special primary, turnout appeared much more reflective of party registration than federal-level performance. The fact that 47,632 Democrats and just 29,875 Republicans turned out to vote is evidence of a serious enthusiasm gap between the parties. Of course, it is difficult to gauge how the district's fundamentals have changed since Hurricane Katrina added tens of thousands of new residents to the Baton Rouge area.
Here's the Cook Report's bottom line on this race:
Republicans are rightly worried about losing their second consecutive seat in a special election. But this turbulent race is not yet in the bag for Democrats, and just how willing the cash-strapped NRCC will be to spend its way out of trouble remains an open question.
