LA-06: Runoff Results ... Cazayoux Wins, As Does Jenkins

by: ryan

Sat Apr 05, 2008 at 18:46:51 PM CDT


Here are the results of the Democratic Primary with 512 of 512 precincts reporting:

Candidate Votes % of Vote
Don Cazayoux 19,803 56.80%
Michael Jackson 15,063 43.20%

It's over. Don Cazayoux is the Democratic nominee. I look forward to Cazayoux v. Jenkins.

And the Repewblican primary:

Candidate # of Votes % of Votes
Laurinda Calongne 9,327 38.06%
"Woody" Jenkins 15,177 61.94%

Oh, goody, Republicans choose Woody!

Here's what impresses me about the Democratic turnout ... Mr. Jackson, with a mere 42% of the Democratic vote, nearly beat Woody ... Here are the total numbers of voters for both parties:

Party Turnout
Democratic Party 34,866
Republican Party 24,504

ryan :: LA-06: Runoff Results ... Cazayoux Wins, As Does Jenkins
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LA-06: Runoff Results ... Cazayoux Wins, As Does Jenkins | 27 comments
And of course... (0.00 / 0)
Congratulations to Don, and to everyone who worked on his campaign... and to Mike who performed admirably, and brought a lot of enthusiasm to this race.

Let's hope that we can resolve our minor differences and move on to beat Jenkins in one month. Is anybody as excited to be a Dem as I am?

I don't think you're going to have worry about complacency (0.00 / 0)
Cazayoux v. Jenkins is going to start rocking.  Mark my words.  

"I was against NAFTA and CAFTA, and I'll be against SHAFTA."
[ Parent ]
What do you make of Jackson's assertions (0.00 / 0)
That he'll be running again in November for this office?
[ Parent ]
If Cazayoux wins ... (0.00 / 0)
he won't win the primary then, as it will come across as sour grapes.  If Cazayoux loses, with an Obama on the top of the ticket, Jackson may have a shot, but I would be very surprised if he beats an incumbent.  

"I was against NAFTA and CAFTA, and I'll be against SHAFTA."
[ Parent ]
More info on turnout (0.00 / 0)
From the Advocate:

Twenty percent of the registered Republicans voted and 11.5 percent of the Democrats voted.

If my math is right, this means that there are 297 thousand registered Dems in the district and 122 thousand Republicans.

This is good (and bad) news.

Good: Dems have a huge advantage; e.g., Michael Jackson got nearly more votes than Jenkins.  

Bad: Republicans had stronger turnout than Dems. Were the Dems complacent? If so, that's not going to cut it in May.

Turnout is down this go 'round... (0.00 / 1)
I place the blame three ways:
1) No school tax renewals (these are core Democratic party issues) - we always turn out for these. (A huge reason)
2) Somebody's candidate didn't make it, so they got discouraged (very likely)
3) People tired of the election process (probably a small factor... but DAMN are there a lot of votes this year)

Okay, so, let's look at Mike:
Primary: 12,882
Runoff: 15,034
Net Gain: 2,152

Don:
Primary: 16,596
Runoff: 19,756
Net Gain: 3,160

Now, let's sneak over to GOP-land, shall we?
Woody:
Primary: 14,849
Runoff: 15,162
Net Gain: 313

Laurinda:
Primary: 7,584
Runoff: 9,308
Net Gain: 1,724

I want everybody to look at those last two 'Net Gain' columns. Mike and Don both beat Laurinda, in terms of voters gained.

And, 313 new voters for Jenkins? I think that speaks volumes.

This tells us:
1) Some of the Paul Sawyer people lined up behind Laurinda Calongne
2) But, not nearly as many as the Decuir/Kopplin people who lined up behind Cazayoux/Jackson
3) 313 new Jenkins voters?

313?
313.

Think long and hard about that.  

[ Parent ]
Complacent? (0.00 / 0)
Maybe not a big problem if voters stay home because they think BOTH candidates are good. Nobody will have that state of mind in the Special Election itself!
Also... (0.00 / 0)
Anybody notice a spate of sign thefts?

When I got back from mass this morning, somebody had stolen all of the Cazayoux, Jackson, Jenkins, and Casey signs in my neighborhood.

Not a whole lot of Calongne signs out by me, so I can't vouch for that.

Someone stole the signs out of my yard too... (0.00 / 0)
and put a Jenkins sign in its place and also put a Jenkins bumper sticker on my car. I called a friend to get the number for Jenkin's campaign office and he said that he had heard many people had told him that Cologne's people were doing it to make Woody look bad. Not sure if its true, but for the chance that it is I'm glad she didn't win.  
[ Parent ]
My guess is that (0.00 / 0)
the staffer lied to you.  I know Jenkins' campaign manager, and my opinion of him is low.  VERY LOW.  Wouldn't surprise me if they stooped to this.  

"I was against NAFTA and CAFTA, and I'll be against SHAFTA."
[ Parent ]
Funny... (0.00 / 0)
and put a Jenkins sign in its place and also put a Jenkins bumper sticker on my car.

Ask the kids say: "I LOLed."

[ Parent ]
I'm spelling poorly...(n/t) (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
I feel good about this race (0.00 / 0)
It's already on the DCCC "Red to Blue" list. But I have some questions:

1. How hard will national Republicans fight for this seat? Will the the NRCC be too queasy about putting up $$$ for Woody Jenkins?

2. Will Bobby Jindal and LA Republicans put themselves out for Jenkins?

3. Will Michael Jackson take one for the team and endorse Cazayoux?

The real issue. . . (0.00 / 0)
will be turnout.   Will the DCCC pay the necessary tithes to the Fields/Delpit/Winfield GOTV machines?
[ Parent ]
I've heard some rumblings.... (0.00 / 0)
That Fields/Delpit/Winfield, et al, might sit this one out... I have no idea if that's remotely close to the truth.

If so, and it's some crazy gamble to let Jenkins have it so that Jackson could have a shot in the fall (when African American turnout will be at, likely, an all-time high - levels not seen since the sixties) - then we're going to get caught up in the most cynical and obscene form of politics, right when the party just is beginning to get its footing here again.

Okay, back to watching Memphis-KU...

[ Parent ]
Ain't happening. (0.00 / 0)
None of those guys were that excited about Jackson in the first place.  They only gave him lip service.  The national party will fund a huge GOTV effort directed to AA voters.
[ Parent ]
Trust me ... (0.00 / 0)
You don't need to worry about turnout.  It'll be there. I'm more worried about the usual menagerie of GOP scare tactics ... Is the NRCC going to go all-in on this one, like they did in IL-14?  

I wonder ...

"I was against NAFTA and CAFTA, and I'll be against SHAFTA."

[ Parent ]
Don't lose sight of $ (0.00 / 0)
There was little GOTV effort for Michael because he didn't have the money to pay for it.  The DCCC has the money but the question is will they pay the right players to get it done.  Moreover, the state party has no viable GOTV structure of its own.  They have largely relied on the Winfield/Delpit/Fields orgs in Baton Rouge and the Progressive Democrat/BOLD groups in N.O.

Ultimately, if the money is right the GOTV groups will be in the streets. . . .  

[ Parent ]
Heard much about Britton Loftin's plan (0.00 / 0)
For the state party? Any opinions on it?
[ Parent ]
Don't know about his plan. . . (0.00 / 0)
However, I have met him and he appears to be quite knowledgeable about community organizing.
[ Parent ]
Let me just say for the record ... (0.00 / 0)
Britton is good.  REAL GOOD.  And if he can impart just a fraction of his knowledge and skills to the organizers, the LA Democratic Party as we know it will be no more.  

"I was against NAFTA and CAFTA, and I'll be against SHAFTA."
[ Parent ]
Just got this from the Jenkins campaign: (0.00 / 0)
I put my name on their email list and recently got this:
Jenkins said he is optimistic about the May 3 general election.  "We believe that we can win roughly half the votes Rep. Cazayoux received in the runoff election.  The low turnout among Democrat, which was less than 12 percent, was half the turnout among Republicans.  This indicates their lack of enthusiasm for the choices offered on the Democratic side.  Many Democrats are as conservative as Republican voters, and we will draw them to our side on May 3."
Let's make sure that doesn't happen, OK?
[ Parent ]
LOL ... (0.00 / 0)
Does Jason Dore actually believe the bullshit he puts out there?  Percentages don't mean anything, Jason.  

Raw numbers do.  The fact is, there were 10,000 more Democrats at the polls in this one.  You can't spin that!

"I was against NAFTA and CAFTA, and I'll be against SHAFTA."

[ Parent ]
So, they're to have us believe (0.00 / 0)
That Democrats came out to two elections in a row to vote for Don (the guy the national media, the local media, and the state GOP recognize as having the best chance against Jenkins) - are going to change their tune in May?

That's some double and triple-reverse logic working there.

Phonebanking for the Cazayoux campaign, I ended up contacting around 700-800 Democratic voters - and I ended up knocking on about forty doors. I only got one person who told me: "You're wasting your time... I'm voting for Woody!"

[ Parent ]
Pat Bergeron is spinning the same line of crap . . . (0.00 / 0)
on his LANEWSLINK website.  Michael Jackson got almost as many votes as Woody. Woody is just about tapped out on the "R" side.  His only hope is that there are a bunch of wacky right-wing nut-job indies & dems that weren't allowed to vote for him previously.  
[ Parent ]
LA-06: Runoff Results ... Cazayoux Wins, As Does Jenkins | 27 comments
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