So, how am I to read this? That Jackson, et al:
Either:
A: Think that African American turnout will be high enough to catapult an African American candidate, regardless of party affiliation and funding, to a majority victory in the Fall?
B: Know that the above is statistically never going to happen, and are doing this to express discontent with the state party?
Regarding the latter point: On the one hand, it's true, we have a Democratic party conundrum in which we more or less expect black Democrats to vote for the white guy in a general election, but we don't expect white Democrats to vote for the black guy.
Some capital area politicos, like Baton Rouge mayor Melvin "Kip" Holden and Baker mayor Harold
Rideau (and Jason Decuir, to a lesser extent) have been changing that. Holden and Rideau are both talented administrators, and both rather popular - possibly some of the best leaders the capital area has seen in decades. And, they were able to get elected and acquire a substantial portion of the white vote. In that regard, we can think of them as "map-changers".
Regarding the former point: If Jackson, and the others, are tired of having African American voters be seen as a 'captive constituency', and they're seeking to expose this critical electoral flaw in the Democratic party, they sure picked a hell of a time to expose the ugly truth.
On the other hand, and looking at the Fall, assuming that Don Cazayoux wins on next Saturday, we could be staring down a situation in which:
1) Don picks up the whole of his previous white Democratic vote
2) Michael runs as the independent
3) A Generic White Suburban Republican runs...
In that situation, I could see a 40/35/25 breakdown... In which Don tackles Michael in a December runoff - which Don would likely win.
I suppose Michael would be angling for some 25/35/40 breakdown where he can tackle the Republican in the runoff.
If that is the final outcome, then I can see a handful of situations in which the seat is delivered to a Republican...
But, it seems like a sketchy electoral calculus, from Jackson's standpoint.
And, why would Cravins suggest running as an independent, when no other Democrat has thrown his or her hat into the ring in LA-07? The Party had been courting former State Senator Gil Pinac of Crowley to run, as the last 3 Democratic officeholders from that Congressional district have been from Crowley - John Breaux, Jimmy Hayes, and Chris John - and he declined, as Ryan notes in his call for Don Cravins, Jr. to run as a Democrat. |
