(GOTV is what is going to win this ballgame, people. I've learned that one the hard way on some campaigns ... Daschle in '04, the overnight poll the night before had us up 2%, and we lost by 2% for a swing of 4%. Anything can happen. We must not let up ... we must call, knock, and drive everyone we know that will vote for Don to the polls on Saturday. In the words of a GOTV mentor, GO! FIGHT! WIN! - promoted by ryan)
Edited for clarity ... ryan
Well, from Survey USA comes a poll showing that Don Cazayoux, with 3 days until the voting begins is poised to win this district.
The poll shows the following spread (with Anzalone Liszt's 4/15 results):
Candidate
Poll %
Don Cazayoux
50% (49%)
Woody Jenkins
41% (42%)
Other/Undecided
8% (?)
The cross-tabs are VERY interesting:
Among white voters, the Republican has a 5-point advantage. Among black voters, the Democrat leads 5:1.
Among voters age 50+, the Republican has a 5-point advantage. Among voters younger than 50, the Democrat leads by 20.
Among men, the contest is effectively tied. Among women, the Democrat leads by 19.
19% of Republicans cross-over and vote Democrat. 18% of Democrats cross-over and vote Republican. Independents break 2:1 for the Democrat.
Among voters who say that illegal immigrants should be forced to leave the country, the Republican leads by 14. Among voters who say that illegals should be penalized but allowed to stay in the country, the Democrat leads by 34.
Among voters who say Congress should continue to fund the war in Iraq, the Republican leads by 51. Among voters who say Congress should reduce funding for the war, the Democrat leads by 41. And among voters who say Congress should stop funding the war altogether, the Democrat leads by 80.
Hell, even the favorability numbers are impressive ... Cazayoux has favorable/unfavorable of 43/28, while Jenkins has favorable/unfavorable numbers of 36/49.
While all this certainly boosts my spirits, I must throw some cold water on y'all, and it has to do with the weighting that Survey USA did:
Of the likely and actual voters in this poll, 42% identified themselves as Democrats, 42% identified themselves as Republican. 15% identified themselves as Independents. Turnout in a special election is difficult to forecast. The outcome of this special election, in particular, is turnout dependent. If voters are older and/or whiter than SurveyUSA here foresees, the Republican will outperform these numbers.
