Monday marked 90 days until the October 22nd primary election, and therefore meant the first filing deadline for Statewide candidates. Here's a quick rundown of what everyone reported, by race:
Our quick take: Jindal is running away with the money crown this year. He raised a healthy $313k, but more importantly, he continued to dole it out prodigiously. Jindal spent over $1m in the past 4 months, mostly on events, travel and mailings. With only 3 months to the election, he's well situated to combat any challenges and looks virtually unbeatable at this late stage of the game.
Our quick take: Dardenne burned it up over the past 4 months, culling the largest haul of the field with $458,000. Dardenne continues his popularity with the moderate business-first Republican crowd, especially in Baton Rouge. Even with this large take, he still can't eclipse Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser's $1.1m on hand. Of course, Nungesser loaned his campaign a healthy amount, but he's also no fundraising slouch. As a challenger, he'll need a healthy warchest to take Dardenne on. Some might say Nungesser is the Jindal candidate, considering the known unease between the Dardenne and Jindal camps. Nungesser's parish presidency continues to be under cloud of Federal investigation, but otherwise, he should be an aggressive challenger to Dardenne in the fall.
Attorney General:
Buddy Caldwell raises $51k, with $480k on hand.
Joel Chaisson (unannounced) raises $20k, has $139k on hand
(UPDATE) Joe Cao raised $20k, with $104k on hand but loaned himself $100k for the race.
Our Quick Take: Buddy's conversion to the Republican party hasn't exactly set his fundraising operation on fire. He continues to limp along with mediocre numbers, although having $480k on hand isn't bad. Chaisson hasn't even stated he'll be in this race, but if he wants, he could easily match and surpass Caldwell's anemic fundraising pace in several weeks. Trial lawyers will be salivating to elect one of their own, especially one so perfectly pedigree'd as Chaisson.
(UPDATE) Cao's raise was small and not surprising. He's had very little notice in the race, except for his announcement. Throwing $100k of his own money in the race makes some waves, however. Caldwell shouldn't ignore Cao if he's going to have real money to throw at this contest.
Secretary of State:
Schedler raises $79k, $171k on hand.
Hines raises $62k, $205k on hand.
Fayard raised $20k, with $19k on hand.
Tucker, Angelle unfiled
Our Quick Take: The big surprise here is Schedler getting with the picture and starting to actually fundraise. Previously, he was relying on a $150k loan to himself as his sole campaign contribution. Raising $79k for this race isn't that bad, but it also isn't so great either. With only $171k on hand, it's going to be hard to imagine how he'll keep up when Caroline Fayard, Jim Tucker and (possibly) Scott Angelle get cranked up. Speaking of those three, Fayard makes headlines by not raising or doing much of anything positive in the past few months. She was spotted at the LaDemos J-J dinner this past weekend, but her filing still says "Statewide" as opposed to "Secretary of State." Has she still not decided what she is running for? Of course, she announced earlier that she was absolutely getting into the Secretary of State's race, but has she rethought her position now that the competition looks a whole lot stiffer if Tucker and Angelle get in? She'll be able to raise the money she needs, from her own family most likely, later this year, so her fundraising totals don't really mean much. As for Tucker and Angelle, neither have filed because neither seem to have decided that they will run. Tucker is very heavily leaning towards doing so, and Angelle has been said to be very interested as well. But so far, nothing to report.
Just to round out the statewides (all of whom have no announced competition):
Agriculture Commisioner Mike Strain has $431k on hand, $41k raised.
Insurance Commissioner Jim Donelon has $619k on hand, with $133k raised.
And finally, Treasurer John Kennedy has a cool $1.9m on hand, raising $224k. This will suit him nicely in 4 years when he runs for Governor.
If there was one race that Democrats should look positively upon during the 2011 statewide elections, it's that of Attorney General. There are several factors that contribute to making this race a lot more interesting, and winnable, for dem politicos.
First, as a race that is largely guided by the choices lawyers make, the Attorney General's race is heavily influenced by the Democratic-leaning legal community. It's not to say that big-time lawyers aren't giving heartily to Republicans in Louisiana (see sop at Slabbed for more insight on this angle). However, some of the biggest fish in the money pond play in the AG's race on the Democratic side, making this a potentially well-financed race for any serious Democratic challenger with lawyer bona-fides.
Second, Buddy Caldwell is a vulnerable incumbent. He was lustily attacked by Republicans in the 2007 run-off against Royal Alexander, but to no avail. Caldwell had already contributed to the vicious knee-capping of unpopular AG Charles Foti by continuing to gin up Foti's involvement with a botched prosecution of nursing home operators. Caldwell's entry into the run-off assured a victory in a time when an AG could count on large Democratic majorities to come home in any contest. Caldwell thinks he saw the tide shift, but he might have jumped too soon. Like fellow switcher Norby Chabert, Caldwell was a lifelong Democrat with strong ties to old Democratic groups such as the District Attorneys' association. While alliances have shifted toward Republicans of late, Caldwell was not seen as the most dominant candidate in 2007 (rather a lucky one), and will now have to spend considerable time explaining to a virulent GOP base why he spent all but one year of his life as a Democrat. Caldwell's joining of the Affordable Care Act suit by the States might have served as the necessary red meat a year ago, but with the steam running out of that pursuit it carries slightly less weight than it might have. Furthermore, vast questions about Caldwell's motivation for that suit remain.
When looking at the potential candidates, it's important to recognize that we'll have a much clearer picture as we round the first fundraising post next week. But as it stands, let's talk business:
Senate President Joel Chaisson (D-Destrehan) - Widely circulated rumors have discussed the term-limited Chaisson is a serious contender for the Attorney General's office. He's a well-connected in the legal world and apparently well-suited to help finance any campaigns himself. As Bobby Jindal's choice as Senate President, Chaisson effectively steered the august body of the legislature through redistricting and budget chaos. His voting record is moderate, and despite the legislature's turn to the right, Chaisson walked the tight-rope between that of a business-friendly deal-maker and a steward of critical education and healthcare priorities. And he's got money in the bank:
The second most interesting thing about the financial filings was the surprising (or accidental) reveal of Senate President Joel Chaisson's intentions. Campaign filings, although required by the form, do not always contain an answer to "office sought." However, Chaisson's assertion that his fundraising was with intention to seek "statewide office" is great news for Louisiana Progressives. Chaisson has a successsful law practice in Destrehan, and has no trouble fundraising, especially from the well-resourced network of trial lawyers. His report of $179k is not overwhelming, but it is a good start and enough to make him a serious contender against Buddy Caldwell. The current AG has a sizable $466k on hand, but also represents a year worth of fundraising. Chaisson hasn't really even gotten started, and if he were to enter the AG race, he would have no trouble raising his tally significantly. Besides just having a (D) next to his name, Chaisson actually has a fairly moderate voting record. Chaisson has straddled LABI-backing with a fairly good record on environmental and education issues. Of course, this is Louisiana, so "moderate" is a relative position. More importantly, Chaisson is well-respected by his fellow legislators, and well-connected throughout the state.
Chaisson is the number 1 contender in this race, if he decides to get involved.
Former Rep. Joe Cao (R-New Orleans) - Fresh off a beating in the LA-2 Congressional race by Cedric Richmond, Cao has turned his ministry toward that of Attorney General. While Cao is a lawyer who taught ethics and philosophy at Loyola, he certainly wouldn't be the most experienced litigator at the helm of the State's AG office. After a long Hamlet act over the Health Care Reform Bill (which he voted for, before he voted against), Cao weakly claimed that ghost-provisions in the ACA would have paid for abortions (of course, the Hyde Amendment already bans Federal Funds from assisting in abortions). Never mind the facts, Cao betrayed his constituents and they punished him for the Benedict Arnold performance by putting a reliable vote in the chamber.
Cao's screwed either way here: He voted for Health Care Reform, which will kill him among the wing-nuts and tea-baggers in Louisiana. Then he voted against the signature achievement of the Obama White House, which doesn't exactly endear him to Democrats who might consider him as a choice over the recent-Republican Buddy Caldwell who sued the Federal Government over the ACA.
It's hard to imagine how Cao could fundraise among GOP circles with his track record on Heath Care Reform. And without the money, it's hard to imagine how he leaps out of his New Orleans base to statewide office.
James "Buddy" Caldwell (D R-Ferriday): As described above, Buddy has several issues coming into his reelection campaign. First, of course, is his recent conversion to the GOP. He will claim he was conservative the entire time and that he sued over the Health Care law as proof. But Caldwell doesn't have much else to hang his hat on besides that fact. He was heavily supported by Democrats in 2007, and smashed Royal Alexander, the Republican candidate, heartily. Caldwell was also a target of GOP attacks, many of which were nasty in nature:
Caldwell has some work cut out for him, but if Republican voters have no where else to go, he can't worry too much. His worst nightmare is if someone like Jeff Landry were to step into the race. Any question about that will be answered soon after Justice gives word on the Congressional map. If Landry is set to battle Boustany, and victory does not look certain, Landry might be highly encouraged to try the AG's office on. And Caldwell will be in serious trouble if that's the case.
We're less than 180 days from the October 22nd primary. And let's be honest: the only thing we know is that Bobby Jindal is cruising to reelection.
Otherwise, the statewide scene is set of under-funded incumbents and over-confident challengers. All campaign finance numbers are through the reporting date of April 15th, 2011.
First, let's get Bobby's gaudy numbers out of the way:
Bobby Jindal raised $1,723,110.52 since the beginning of the year. However, Jindal burned an equally robust $1,329,024.86. No doubt, staffing a national fundraising operation is staff-heavy, but the majority of charges is for political media. Jindal spent over $150k on mailings (likely fundraising asks) in only 4 months. And he spent more than $800k on statewide media buys for those god-awful "no tax pledge" TV spots. His campaign finance report is over 1500 pages long.
Then there's our old friendJohn Georges. While John might want to be mentioned in the Governor's race conversation, the bottom line is that he is not running for Governor. He cannot beat Jindal, and even a stubborn mogul like Georges knows it. He made a big splash by loaning his campaign account $10m. All the chatter among Democrats pointed to Georges rattling his sabers to take Jindal on. But more than likely, Georges will run for a lesser office. Lieutenant Governor, and even Insurance Commissioner, have been mentioned. If Georges spent half of his self-assigned allowance in either race, he would be a top-tier competitor and even a favorite to win. That kind of money simply isn't going to be available to the Jay Dardennes and the Jim Donelon's of the world.
Speaking of Jim Donelon, the affable insurance commissioner raised over $112k this past quarter, bringing his total to over $505k in the bank. This would scare all but the best financed competition off. Unfortunately, if Georges is thinking about this race, a measly $505k won't be sufficient. Donelon has got to be hoping he can talk Georges out of wanting the job. Otherwise, despite his strong fundraising, he will be swamped.
Moving to the Lieutenant Governor's contest, we can now faithfully report that Billy Nungesser is openly stating he will be a candidate for the number 2 job in the fall. His report says it all:
2. Office Sought (Include title of office as well as parish, city, town and/or election district.)
Lt. Governor for the State of Louisiana
So that solves that riddle, for now (at least until qualifying). Nungesser raised an impressive $374k. More impressive is the personal campaign loan of $500k, making his total Cash on Hand $873k. He spent only $521 raising that $374k, which blows away Jindal's burn rate of $0.76 per $1 raised.
Old Jay Dardenne can't catch a break. First, he faces the best-financed first-time Democratic candidate in history in Caroline Fayard, and then the knives come out for Dardenne the following fall. No fewer than three major candidates have suggested they might take Dardenne on, including Billy Nungesser, Scott Angelle and John Georges. The current Lieutenant Governor raised only $146k this period, and ended with $191k CoH. Not bad for a challenger, but not good for an incumbent. Especially one that will face very well financed competition in the fall.
In terms of disasters, look no further than Tom Schedler. The Secretary of State, and ally of Jay Dardenne, raised absolutely nothing. In any other case, this would look like someone who simply isn't running, but we've all been assured Schedler is indeed going to stand for reelection in the fall. The only funds in the account were those he lent himself in the form of a $150k loan. While that might be a good start, the total lack of fundraising is difficult to understand, especially given the near-open field he had with which to work.
In terms of surprises, no blog could be more surprised than this one to see turncoat Walker Hines raise over $156k on low ($12k) expenditures in his campaign for Secretary of State from an impressive list of heavy-hitters. The absolutely deserted field is clearly playing into Hines' favor here, and his father's arm-twisting abilities have given Hines the necessary jolt to make his campaign seem legitimate. While no one expects Hines to win this race, with little other announced or rumored competition, Hines looks ready to crush a woefully unprepared Schedler in the money race. This race is absolutely wide open, and even a mediocre entry would upset Hines' dominance. For now, however, with fundraising and organizational advantages, Hines seems to be on track to be a player.
And finally, our favorite flip-flopping Attorney General, Buddy Caldwell. Since he decided to swap parties, Caldwell's fundraising has dried up. He only raised $91k this period, and spent approximately $82k doing so. While still sitting on more than $450k, Caldwell looks like he is stuck in neutral. This is a unique opportunity for a Democratic candidate, because with trial lawyers being the backbone of the Democratic fundraising base, an Attorney General candidate with strong support from that group would have no trouble raising the funds necessary to compete. Someone, like, hmm, Senate President Joel Chaisson? Or Caroline Fayard? Or Senator Karen Carter Peterson? Just a thought or two...
Speaking of Ms. Fayard, like Mr. Angelle and Senator Chaisson, none have filed tell-tale 180-pre-primary reports. This indicates no definitiveness on the subject of their candidacies. It only suggests they have yet to decide to seriously fundraise. However, this circumstance cannot continue past June. When the 90-day pre-primary reports are required in July, any sensible statewide candidate will have begun to fill the campaign kitty.
It has come to our attention that Appellate Chief Kyle Duncan of the Louisiana Attorney General's office has been lobbying members of the Legislature to support HB 60 (pef alert), which is widely seen as an anti-gay initiative.
Currently, the only people who may adopt a child in Louisiana are single adults or heterosexual married couples. The pertinent Children's Code articles are 1198 and 1221. They are identical except for how the adoption is done; either through an agency or a private adoption:
A single person, eighteen years or older, or a married couple jointly may petition to adopt a child through an agency (text of CHC 1221: may petition to privately adopt a child). When one joint petitioner dies after the petition has been filed, the adoption proceedings may continue as though the survivor was a single original petitioner.
So, how does HB 60 take rights away from adopted children?
Because HB 60 will prevent the State Registrar of Vital Records from issuing a birth certificate to an adopted child with both their adoptive parents' names on it, unless they are married in accordance with state law.
Yep, that's right ... not only does the bill deny children of gay parents the right to have both their adoptive parents' names listed on their birth certificate, but it also deprives children of unmarried heterosexual couples the right to have both their adoptive parents' names listed on the birth certificate.
Why is this a big deal? Because it denies those children inheritance rights in the case of a parent who does not have a will. And it makes it even more difficult for them the right to apply for rather standard benefits such as school registration, medical coverage, life insurance and government benefits.
All in the name of the Louisiana Family Forum's crusade against gay citizens. And it is absolutely shameful for the Louisiana Attorney General's Office to be lobbying in support of HB 60 in the person of Associate Chief Kyle Duncan, especially since the citizens hurt most by this bill are not gay citizens, but children.
I stupidly thought that the Louisiana Attorney General's office was supposed to protect the vulnerable amongst us. Apparently not.
An email for comment to the Louisiana Attorney General's Communications Director has thus far gone unanswered.
A friend who works for Color of Change emailed me about this petition that they are sending to Governor PBJ and AG Caldwell (and current US AG Mukasey and incoming US AG Holder):
Dear Governor Jindal and Attorney General Caldwell,
I just learned that in the weeks following Hurricane Katrina, racist vigilantes in Algiers Point attacked, and according to their own accounts, killed Black men seeking refuge from the floodwaters. I'm outraged to hear that New Orleans law enforcement officials have consistently refused to investigate these crimes, and acted to cover up their own complicity in the violence.
Based on evidence recently presented by A.C. Thompson in The Nation, it appears that while at least 11 Black men were shot or shot at, none of the white vigilantes have been brought to justice. And there's damning evidence that police officers allowed a man to die, and then burned his body to cover it up.
Louisiana-style justice has once again failed to protect and serve the state's Black citizens. State officials such as yourselves must act immediately to change this. I urge you to push for the identification of victims of these crimes, prosecution of the perpetrators, full cooperation with any federal inquiries, and aggressive investigations into the role of local law enforcement officials in committing and suppressing the exploration of these crimes.
Sincerely,
[Your name]
While Color of Change purports to be a voice for Black America, I highly recommend that all Americans and Louisianans sign this petition, because anyone's suspicious death deserves to be investigated.
0 days until the October 22nd primary election, and therefore meant the first filing deadline for Statewide candidates. Here's a quick rundown of what everyone reported, by race:
mocrats should look positively upon during the 2011 statewide elections, it's that of Attorney General. There are several factors that contribute to making this race a lot more interesting, and winnable, for dem politicos. 
John Georges. While John might want to be mentioned in the Governor's race conversation, the bottom line is that he is not running for Governor. He cannot beat Jindal, and even a stubborn mogul like Georges knows it. He made a big splash by loaning his campaign account $10m. All the chatter among Democrats pointed to Georges rattling his sabers to take Jindal on. But more than likely, Georges will run for a lesser office. Lieutenant Governor, and even Insurance Commissioner, have been mentioned. If Georges spent half of his self-assigned allowance in either race, he would be a top-tier competitor and even a favorite to win. That kind of money simply isn't going to be available to the Jay Dardennes and the Jim Donelon's of the world. 
Old Jay Dardenne can't catch a break. First, he faces the best-financed first-time Democratic candidate in history in Caroline Fayard, and then the knives come out for Dardenne the following fall. No fewer than three major candidates have suggested they might take Dardenne on, including Billy Nungesser, Scott Angelle and John Georges. The current Lieutenant Governor raised only $146k this period, and ended with $191k CoH. Not bad for a challenger, but not good for an incumbent. Especially one that will face very well financed competition in the fall. 
Walker Hines raise over $156k on low ($12k) expenditures in his campaign for Secretary of State from an impressive list of heavy-hitters. The absolutely deserted field is clearly playing into Hines' favor here, and his father's arm-twisting abilities have given Hines the necessary jolt to make his campaign seem legitimate. While no one expects Hines to win this race, with little other announced or rumored competition, Hines looks ready to crush a woefully unprepared Schedler in the money race. This race is absolutely wide open, and even a mediocre entry would upset Hines' dominance. For now, however, with fundraising and organizational advantages, Hines seems to be on track to be a player. 
nd finally, our favorite flip-flopping Attorney General, Buddy Caldwell. Since he decided to swap parties, Caldwell's fundraising has dried up. He only raised $91k this period, and spent approximately $82k doing so. While still sitting on more than $450k, Caldwell looks like he is stuck in neutral. This is a unique opportunity for a Democratic candidate, because with trial lawyers being the backbone of the Democratic fundraising base, an Attorney General candidate with strong support from that group would have no trouble raising the funds necessary to compete. Someone, like, hmm, Senate President Joel Chaisson? Or Caroline Fayard? Or Senator Karen Carter Peterson? Just a thought or two... 
