Political commentators always talk about "safe seats" when handicapping future races. But safe districts do not mean a safe seat.
Although Louisiana's 2nd Congressional district was never going to be radically changed in composition by the redistricting process. It will remain a strong Democratic Seat. However, the new map does have several consequences. [As Long as DoJ doesn't turn the map away in the preclearance process].
Through the years and redistricting processes, the map's edges ebbed and flowed into New Orleans suburbs. However, the core of the district, and more than 75% of its population, came directly from the Parish of Orleans. Accompanying communities in the 2nd usually drew from black, and Democratic, strongholds on the west bank of Jefferson Parish.
Despite the fact that, due to its protected nature as a Voting Rights Act district, LA-2 wasn't going to go away, population changes have now dictated that its geography and politics will change significantly.
LA-2 now approximately 250k new voters and two new features. First, the most obvious feature is that the District now grows out of New Orleans and runs through the River Parishes and into Baton Rouge. Second, the new New Orleans local West Bank plan shows a more ecumenical, and unfavorable arrangement, giving LA-2 almost all of the West Bank of Jefferson Parish. This stands in contrast to the cherry-picked Democratic West Bank that existed in the previous LA-2 map.
The first feature is most important. Richmond now must make pilgrimages up the river to meet all new constituents in St. Charles, St. John, and St. James Parishes. He must also convince the African-American portion of Baton Rouge included in his district to ignore their home-grown, and influential, political players such as Cleo Fields and Mayor Kip Holden to back him. Second, while the new map presents a similar percentage of African-American votes as the previous, the percentage of identical votes, i.e. those who have voted for (or had the opportunity to vote for) Cedric, has fallen. Expecting African-Americans and Democrats outside of New Orleans to automatically support someone from New Orleans East is not a given.
Sure, they're not identical, but they certainly are similar. And why is this significant?
Because loud rumors suggest Public Service Commissioner Lambert C. Boissiere, III has told his allies that he will challenge Cedric Richmond in the 2012 jungle primary for LA-2. Boissiere, who is the son of New Orleans Constable (and former State Senator) Lambert Boissiere, one of the founding members of the COUP political organization that grew out of Treme in New Orleans. Boissiere the third ran a big, though unopposed by major competition, reelection campaign in 2010 against John Schwegman.Boissiere has represented the PSC District 3 (which has basically stayed the same through remapping) since 2004. His ties to business (LABI) and African-American political groups all over the river parishes, New Orleans, and Baton Rouge, give him an edge other candidates would lack if they hoped to take Richmond down.
Here is a quick look at Cedric's 2011Q1 fundraising:
Now the great realignment begins. The 2010 Census results were released over the past 24 hours, and the truth has been revealed.
Over the next few weeks, we'll have lots to say about the numbers and what they mean for Progressives in Louisiana. Here is a quick preview: It's not all bad news. But more on that later.
First, Louisiana's population is about 4.5m. We're one of the slowest growing states, especially in the South. When it came time to divide up the 435 Congressional Districts, we got the short end of the stick. So, just as we did as a result of the 1990 census, we will lose one Congressional district, going from 7 to 6. Each new Congressional District must have about 755,000 folks, which is simply the division of the total population of Louisaina by 6. Let's take a look at the current 2010 Congressional district population breakdowns and how they relate to the new number:
Congressional District
Total Pop
Deviation
Deviation %
White
Black
Black %
1
686,961
-68,601
-9.08%
533213
109533
15.945%
2
493,352
-262,210
-34.70%
160396
290121
58.806%
3
637,371
-118,191
-15.64%
420777
174793
27.424%
4
667,109
-88,453
-11.71%
407430
226369
33.933%
5
644,296
-111,266
-14.73%
399664
224221
34.801%
6
727,498
-28,064
-3.71%
438100
254868
35.033%
7
676,785
-78,777
-10.43%
476612
172491
25.487%
The most imporant feature here is that the VRA-protected CD2 (now held by Cedric Richmond) must expand by more than a third to reach close to 755,000. Up the river, Cedric must go, to find those votes...
By tradition, the state's longest-tenured congressman -- Alexander is beginning his sixth term -- coordinates the federal representatives in drawing a plan that gives the Legislature a starting point. Differences between Landry and Boustany are likely to prevent unanimous consent, with Hanks saying only that "a majority of the delegation is in agreement" with broad parameters.
[snip]
Landry's campaign manager, Phillip Joffrion, said Thursday the new congressman has not signed onto the Alexander outline and that any agreement among House members occurred before Landry and Richmond took office in January. Hanks did not say whether the delegation held a formal vote and when it might have occurred.
The outline they present largely maintains the status quo, with Richmond's district moving up the river through St. Charles, St. John and St. James Parishes:
If we were placing bets, the sharp money would be on Landry playing a smart bluff here. He knows he cannot out-muscle the old Congressional hands, and that the national GOP won't help him take on the entire Louisiana GOP delegation. That isn't enough to dissuade him from using his anti-establishment credentials to take Boustany head-on. However, he's likely aiming to dislodge concessions from the delegation regarding his future; namely that Landry will be a candidate for Attorney General against recent-Republican-Convert Buddy Caldwell.
If Landry hangs around threatening to cause inter-party difficulties on the Congressional level, he might be able to persuade the entire delegation to back his Attorney General campaign. And that would spell trouble for Mr. Caldwell.
IN a recent poll by Public Policy Polling, State Representative Cedric Richmond is leading Congressman Joseph Cao by 11 points – and that is BEFORE the President Obama Ad…if you look deep into the numbers – the bad news for Cao doesn’t end there:
Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling, says the poll shows it would take a political earthquake for Cao to win. Not only does Cao trail Richmond by double digits, far more undecided voters are Democrats (61%) than Republicans (12%). Cao has to erase a gap with those who have already decided, but needs to win undecided voters -- most of whom are Democrats.Public Policy Polling is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country. Cedric Richmond (D): 49%
Dollar Bill should be renamed Teflon Bill. He always finds a way to survive to fight another day. He'll face Helena Moreno in the run-off on November 4th.
There are 5 days before the primary in LA-02 and LA-04, which were delayed thanks to Hurricane Gustav. There are 6 candidates vying to knock off "Dollar Bill" Jefferson ... in alphabetical order, y'all ... James Carter, Troy "C" Carter, Byron Lee, Helena Moreno, Cedric Richmond, and Kenya Smith.
I'm not as familiar with this race, as I am with others, mainly due to the lack of coverage, and the lack of response by the campaigns to my emails for more information. Here's what I gather so far ...
As much as I want to see Jefferson go down in the primary, I don't see it happening. I think one of the run-off spots goes to him because I think he will be successful in getting his core supporters - older voters - out to vote.
Byron Lee, Kenyatta Smith and Troy "C" Carter are not in this thing. They'll get their single digit support, but they're not moving on to the Battle Royale on Election Day.
That leaves James Carter, Helena Moreno, and Cedric Richmond vying for that final spot in the run-off. Many folks are assuming that Helena Moreno wins by default because she's white.
James Carter ... I like what I hear about him, and I know and respect the field people working for him. I don't like some of the people backing him, mainly because I had the opportunity to work with them on elections pre-K, and I know which campaigns they backed post-K. Their track record ain't one to brag about, even though they see it as a badge of honor to lose so many times. For the record, I'm not talking about Deborah Langhoff ... I adore her, and respect her grassroots acumen.
Cedric Richmond has secured the endorsements of both the Gambit Weekly and the Times-Picayune, which is impressive. I met him the other night, and I entered into a conversation with him and one of his supporters about education and the prison reforms underway in Louisiana. His easy grasp of the issues speaks to his experience in the Legislature, and if he were to represent LA-02 in Congress, we would have an excellent advocate fighting for us.
Like I said, there are 5 DAYS left. Go VOTE. Go VOLUNTEER. You can find out where by clicking on the links for the candidates under LA-02 in the middle column near the bottom.
No, the debts listed for both candidates are NOT mis-prints. The difference between the two, however is stark: Harlan owes that money to himself, as he loaned his campaign that money. Scalise, on the other hand owes that money to other people ... staff, vendors, and even the caterer for his victory party, to whom he owes some $9,000. Must have been one hell of a party.
Mr. Troy Carter is not a serious candidate. The debt is partly from his failed run back in 2006, where he placed fourth in the jungle primary behind the Republican. I've corrected the amount raised this quarter from his FEC report. If you click on his name, it'll bring you to his July Quarterly FEC report, where he reports NO money raised this quarter. But if you take a look at his April Quarterly report, you'll see that he only reported some $2,188 raised in the election cycle to date column, and nothing again in the this cycle to date column. Mr. Carter, please find someone to teach your staff how to fill out the reports properly!
Mr. Lee has raised an impressive amount. As one of twothe only viable West Banker's in the race, he has a good shot of taking second place in primary, and making it to the runoff, so long as he can turn out a majority of the West Bank for him.
The debts that Mr. Jefferson owes are personal debts of his to MBNA America, American Express, Dryades Savings Bank, and Liberty Bank, as well as some to himself. Hasn't the man ever heard of fiscal responsibility?
Well, with Ms. Moreno (potentially Mrs. Bernazzani?) making a run for LA-02 but putting signs all over Uptown, including in the LA-01 portion of New Orleans, I wonder if she's really serious about making this run. Is this perhaps a prelude to running for Mayor of our fair city in 2010, especially now that Mr. Bernazzani is prohibited from doing so by the City Charter. Oh yeah, I nearly forgot ... the FEC doesn't know what party Ms. Moreno is a member of. If you enter Moreno into the field on that page just linked to, it'll bring you to all the Moreno's that have filed with them. The first one is our very own Helena Moreno ... the UNK after LA means unknown!
The debt is money that Mr. Richmond gave his campaign. For a first-time candidate for the U.S. House, the first quarter fundraising for Mr. Richmond is impressive. Almost $200,000 in the bank. Right now, he has to be one of the favorites to oust Congressman Jefferson.
There are two candidates that have yet to file an FEC report, as they are not required to do so at this time, as they were not raising money prior to the June 30th deadline - former Nagin aide Kenya Smith, and City Councilman James Carter. As reader SM points out, James Carter is a West Banker himself. That's the reason for the changes in the blurb about Byron Lee.
LA-03
There's no need to keep tabs on Congressman Melancon's fund-raising, as he has no race. He does have a cool $1,042,583.14 sitting in the bank. There is speculation that he will parlay that money to make a run against Sinator Vitter, although my colleague Oyster points out a very, very disappointing video of the erstwhile Congressman taken over the weekend.
As of 11 PM CST on July 14th, not one Republican candidate for the House in Louisiana has filed their July quarterly. Five of the 18 Democrats running have filed their reports. Without further adieu, here are those five fundraising reports:
LA-01
Jim Harlan has filed his report. Vinnie Mendoza, a perpetual candidate, has not.
No, the debts is not a mis-print. Mr. Harlan donated his campaign $525,000. For the first time in recent memory, money will not be a reason for the Democratic candidate in LA-01 to lose. It will be because the campaign didn't do a good job. I doubt that will be the case, as the campaign manager for Mr. Harlan is the same campaign manager that helped Travis Childers
LA-02
There are 8 Democrats running in the primary, including incumbent Congressman Bill Jefferson. Only 2 of the 8 have filed their FEC reports so far. They are:
Mr. Troy Carter is not a serious candidate. The debt is partly from his failed run back in 2006, where he placed fourth in the jungle primary behind the Republican. I've corrected the amount raised this quarter from his FEC report. If you click on his name, it'll bring you to his July Quarterly FEC report, where he reports NO money raised this quarter. But if you take a look at his April Quarterly report, you'll see that he only reported some $2,188 raised in the election cycle to date column, and nothing again in the this cycle to date column. Mr. Carter, please find someone to teach your staff how to fill out the reports properly!
The debt is money that Mr. Richmond gave his campaign. For a first-time candidate for the U.S. House, the first quarter fundraising for Mr. Richmond is impressive. Almost $200,000 in the bank. Right now, he has to be one of the favorites to oust Congressman Jefferson.
Since Charlie won re-election by acclamation, as no Republican bothered to file to run against him, he is a prime candidate for the netroots' Use It or Lose It Campaign. He can easily afford to give 30% of his cash on hand to the DCCC so they can pump even more money into LA-01, LA-04, LA-06 and LA-07 to help us elect the Democratic candidates in those districts.
LA-04
There are 4 Democrats running for the nomination in this district - Willie Banks, Paul Carmouche, Artis "Doc" Cash and John Milkovich. Thus far, only Mr. Banks has filed his July Quarterly FEC report.
The debt is money that Mr. Banks loaned his campaign. He's having a hard time raising cash, presumably because he's running against a VERY well-known Democrat in that district, the Caddo Parish District Attorney, Paul Carmouche, who has served in that capacity for I believe 30 years.
The folks that qualified yesterday AND Wednesday are in green text, unless they have are a Democrat AND have a website that I can find. If they are Repewblicans, then they have no linky to their site. This is a progressive website, and there is no need to link to those we are trying to defeat. The folks that qualified today are in black. So, without further adieu:
Senator Landrieu is currently on her "Winning for Louisiana." There will be events in Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Shreveport, Monroe, Alexandria, Lake Charles and New Orleans over the weekend. The New Orleans stop will be the final one, and that is being held at the Basin Street Station in New Orleans. You find out about the rest of the stops in the Events Box up in the right corner.
The field you see up there will likely be who is on the ballot come November, as Mr. Stewart is running as an Independent, and will appear on the November ballot. The entrance will likely make things very difficult for the former Democrat turned Republican who now says party labels are irrelevant. I say that because Mr. Fontanesi is a Libertarian and will likely earn votes otherwise intended for the Republican nominee.
LA-01
Jim Harlan, Democrat
M.V. "Vinny" Mendoza, Democrat
Steve Scalise, Republican
James Carter, Democrat Troy "C" Carter, Democrat
William Jefferson, Democrat
Byron L. Lee, Democrat
Helena Moreno, Democrat Cedric Richmond, Democrat
Malik Rahim, Green Party
Kenya J.H. Smith, Democrat
"Jerry" Jacobs, No Party
Anh "Joseph" Cao, Republican
This is likely to remain in Democratic hands, no matter the outcome of the Democratic primary. The real fight here will be on September 6th.
Charlie won his re-election by acclamation. That's more money that can go to Don Cazayoux, Don Cravins, Jr., Jim Harlan, Mary Landrieu, and whomever comes out of the Democratic primaries in LA-02 and LA-04.
John Fleming, Republican
Chris Gorman, Republican
Jeff Thompson, Republican
Chester T. "Catfish" Kelley, No Party
Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., Other
So we'll see one Democrat and one GOPer on the November ballot in the 4th along with Mr. Kelley and Mr. Bowen.
LA-05
Rodney Alexander, Republican
A Republican has stepped forward to take on the traitor ... his name is:
Andrew Clack, Republican
No Democrat emerged to take on the traitor. Oh, well. This race will be decided on September 6th. My guess is that the traitor will win handily, but what do I know about GOP politics?
Michael Jackson, No Party
As far as I am concerned, the Democrats in the State House ought to dump Mr. Jackson. Let him run as an Independent from here on out. Party rules require Democrats to support the Democratic nominee in general elections, and Mr. Jackson is blatantly dissing that rule. Come on EBR Democrats, show Mr. Jackson that you've got a spine!
LA-07
Don Cravins, Jr., Democrat
Charles Boustany, Republican
Peter Vidrine, Other
The folks that qualified yesterday are in green text, unless they have are a Democrat AND have a website that I can find. If they are Repewblicans, then they have no linky to their site. This is a progressive website, and there is no need to link to those we are trying to defeat. The folks that qualified today are in black. So, without further adieu:
Senator Landrieu plans to qualify on Friday morning, after which she will kick off her "Winning for Louisiana" tour with stops in Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Shreveport, Monroe, Alexandria, Lake Charles and New Orleans over the weekend.
John Neely Kennedy kicked off his "Nonsense on a Bus" tour through the state, and will apparently qualify tomorrow.
LA-01
Jim Harlan, Democrat
Steve Scalise, Republican
M.V. "Vinny" Mendoza, Democrat
James Carter, Democrat Troy "C" Carter, Democrat
William Jefferson, Democrat
Byron L. Lee, Democrat
Helena Moreno, Democrat Cedric Richmond, Democrat
Malik Rahim, Green Party
Kenya J.H. Smith, Democrat
"Jerry" Jacobs, No Party
Kenya Smith's filing leaves State Senator Cheryl Gray as the lone Democrat still considering the race. The two Republicans I mentioned yesterday, attorney Joe Lavigne, who finished 4th in the 2006 jungle primary, and Dillard University professor Gary Clark, are still considering it.
So far, no one else has qualified. It'll be interesting to see if any Republicans bother to throw their hat in the ring, considering that Charlie will be seeking his 3rd term this fall, and he won his re-election campaign quite convincingly over former State Senator Craig Romero, 55-40 in 2006.
John Fleming, Republican
Chris Gorman, Republican
Jeff Thompson, Republican
Chester T. "Catfish" Kelley, No Party
Mr. Kelly ran back in '06, and garnered some 2% of the vote as a Republican. My guess is he'll garner about the same as that, or even less than that in a competitive open seat election.
LA-05
Rodney Alexander, Republican
A Republican has stepped forward to take on the traitor ... his name is:
So here's the list of folks who qualified to run for the eight federal offices up for election in Louisiana this year, with a note as to when various folks are planning to qualify:(if there is no link to a website, it's because the candidate is a Republican, or they don't have one)
LA-Sen
None today.
Senator Landrieu plans to qualify on Friday morning, after which she will kick off her "Winning for Louisiana" tour with stops in Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Shreveport, Monroe, Alexandria, Lake Charles and New Orleans over the weekend.
John Neely Kennedy kicked off his "Nonsense on a Bus" tour through the state, and will supposedly qualify at some point during the tour.
I believe these two are the only ones planning on running from either party ... there may be some minor candidates that come out of the woodwork between now and Friday, but this will be main event here in LA-01.
LA-02
James Carter, Democrat Troy "C" Carter, Democrat
William Jefferson, Democrat
Byron L. Lee, Democrat
Helena Moreno, Democrat Cedric Richmond, Democrat
Malik Rahim, Green Party
Apparently, Karen Carter-Peterson is not running. There are still others considering it, including Nagin aide Kenya Smith, State Senator Cheryl Gray, both of whom are Democrats. There are two Republicans considering making the race, attorney Joe Lavigne, who finished 4th in the 2006 jungle primary, and Dillard University professor Gary Clark.
So far, no one else has qualified. It'll be interesting to see if any Republicans bother to throw their hat in the ring, considering that Charlie will be seeking his 3rd term this fall, and he won his re-election campaign quite convincingly over former State Senator Craig Romero, 55-40 in 2006.
John Fleming, Republican
Chris Gorman, Republican
Jeff Thompson, Republican
Mr. Banks and Mr. Milkovich are first-time candidates for this seat, I believe. Dr. Cash ran back in '06, and split the Democratic vote with Patti Cox 17% and 13%, respectively, with little or no Louisiana Democratic Party backing. This time, Mr. Carmouche is considered the heavy front-runner for the Democrats, thanks to his long service as the Caddo Parish District Attorney.
On the Republican side, outgoing Congressman Jim McCrery has been instrumental to Jeff Thompson, going so far to endorse him, and secure the endorsements of House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio, Republican Whip Eric Cantor of Virginia, Rep. Dave Camp of Michigan and Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas. Needless to say, the Republicans back home aren't sitting on their hands ... they're challenging McCrery's pick.
LA-05
Rodney Alexander, Republican
So far, no one has stepped forward to take on the traitor. Hopefully, someone will, but it will be an uphill fight, as it is late in the game to start the fundraising.
Don Cravins, Jr., Democrat
Charles Boustany, Republican
Peter Vidrine, Other
Boustany has been an absolute disappointment as a Representative for Southwest Louisiana, refusing to earmark any money for this district, which is struggling to rebuild after Hurricane Rita washed ashore in 2005. Mr. Cravins offers an attractive alternative for voters ... and will give Boustany a run for his money.
Today is the start of qualifying for all federal elections being held this fall. To date, I have received emails informing me when the following folks are qualifying for office:
Today, Wednesday, July 9th
John Kennedy, Republican, LA-Sen
Jim Harlan, Democrat, LA-01
Don Cravins, Jr., Democrat, LA-07, 3 PM
Thursday, July 10th
TBA
Friday, July 11th
Mary Landrieu, Democrat, LA-Senate, 9 AM
I assume that Congressmen Alexander (R, LA-05), Boustany (R, LA-07), Cazayoux (D, LA-06), Jefferson (D, LA-02), Melancon (D, LA-03), and Scalise (R, LA-01) will be qualifying on Friday as well, since the act of qualifying is usually good for some press attention, and the House of Representatives is currently in session.
I also believe that the following people will be qualifying at some point in the next few days:
Cedric Richmond, Democrat, LA-02
Karen Carter-Peterson, Democrat, LA-02
Helena Moreno, Democrat, LA-02
Paul Carmouche, Democrat, LA-04
Bill Cassidy, Republican, LA-06
Michael Jackson, Independent, LA-06
The Republicans have caught a HUGE break with Woody Jenkins' announcement that he will not seek the GOP nomination for LA-06 this fall. What does that mean? Don Cazayoux better start moving back to the Democratic Party. If he continues to tack to the center, he's going to face a helluva fight this fall. He'll have the coattails of Obama in the black community here in the Baton Rouge area, but he can't win with the black community alone. And any advantage he will have will be sorely tested by the potential entry into the race by State Rep. Michael Jackson as an Independent, which will catapult him directly into the general election. I hope it doesn't come to pass, but I fear that Don is now facing a perfect storm of his own, a mere two months after the GOP faced their own perfect storm of circumstances in the special election.
Congressman William Jefferson's (D) hopes for re-election were dealt a major, if not fatal, blow on Wednesday by the news that one of his sisters, Brenda Jefferson, has pleaded guilty to misprision of a felony. What that means is that she will likely be sentenced to probation, and definitely testify against her siblings and/or niece in cases that have been filed against them.
The court documents filed Wednesday make clear that Brenda Jefferson can help prosecutors make their case against her sister, 4th District Assessor Betty Jefferson, who is also the congressman's sister; their brother, political strategist Mose Jefferson; and Coleman, their niece. The trio is charged with plundering more than $600,000 from three charities they controlled.
A summary of the government's case lays out specific allegations of how Brenda Jefferson and other family members skimmed money from charities:
Coleman and Betty Jefferson made out a series of checks to Brenda Jefferson without her knowledge. They then forged her name on the backs of the checks and deposited the money in their own accounts.
At Betty Jefferson's direction, Brenda Jefferson sent a phony report to the state claiming that a certain individual had provided tutors for 25 pregnant teenagers in 2005. The person did not work for the charity, and the teens were never tutored.
Also at Betty Jefferson's direction, Brenda Jefferson directed an accountant to write checks from the nonprofit group's account to people who she knew did not work for the charity.
Again at Betty Jefferson's direction, Brenda Jefferson forged the name of an unnamed person on grant applications. The person was the purported director of the charity; in fact, she did not work there.
At Mose Jefferson's direction, Brenda Jefferson opened a bank account that was a repository for state grant money. She disbursed the money at Mose Jefferson's direction.
"My family and I have sworn a great oath to trust God and to fight on to vindicate ourselves and our good name. This we will do. And, in none of it, will I or they sacrifice our continued strong commitment and effective delivery of the things our people need to recover from the storm and from a bad economy."
Congressman Jefferson's quest also faces the obstacle of a intra-party primary for the first time in his career. Expected challengers include:
Byron Lee
Helena Moreno
Karen Carter-Peterson Cedric Richmond
Once I find websites for the other candidates for this year's race, I will update that. If you know of their websites for this year's race, please let me know! Qualifying takes place July 9th to July 11th, so we'll know what's what in less than 3 weeks.
How this will play out is anyone's guess. It remains to be seen if Brenda Jefferson has any information about William's legal troubles, which deal with bribery and foreign nationals.
State Rep. Cedric Richmond will be announcing his candidacy tomorrow morning in Jackson Square in New Orleans at 10:30 AM. The location is intended to be a visceral reminder of the Bush Administration's failure to live up to the promise President Bush made 3 years ago on national television from Jackson Square. State Rep. Jackson just sent out a press release announcing that the announcement will come at 6:30 at the Basin Street Station at 501 Basin Street in New Orleans due to "events beyond their control."
Mr. Richmond is expected to make the following comments:
"This is where President Bush stood after Katrina and promised to rebuild this region. That hasn't happened.
I'm coming to Jackson Square to tell the people of New Orleans -- and all of the Second District -- that I'm running for Congress to deliver real recovery."
There's more you can read on Mr. Richmond here, and on the LA-02 race here.
With six weeks remaining before the qualifying period begins - July 9th - 11th - the race to vanquish Congressman William "Dollar Bill" Jefferson has started to heat up quite a bit. Let's take a look at all the candidates ... starting with those that have moved beyond the "I'm looking at my options stage":
Bill Jefferson (D): Regardless of his indictment for corruption, the man is in the race at press time. Whether any of the candidates I discuss below will hinge, I believe, on whether any of them would be willing to hit him harder than his opponents did back in '06. Hell, where to start? How about starting with the late great Ashley Morris' post entitled, "How to Defeat Bill Jefferson." Ashley hit the nail on the head ... if you want to win, you're going to have to point out all those things about Mr. Jefferson. I think the strongest point of attack would be to hit the fact that Jefferson no longer has a committee vote, nor does he sit on the Ways and Means committee any longer, which means he can no longer bring home the bacon that New Orleans so desperately needs. Hell, even the non-voting D.C. Rep, Eleanor Norton, has a committee vote! It's sad, really ... could you imagine the money a tag-team of Jefferson and Landrieu working their respective chambers could have brought home?
Karen Carter-Peterson (D): Ms. Carter-Peterson is currently the Speaker Pro Tempore in the House, and she represents HD 93, which covers parts of the Garden District, St. Thomas, Central City, Mid-City, CBD, Treme, the Fairgrounds, and the 7th Ward. She lost the run-off to Jefferson back in 2006, presumably because she got stuck with the "white" candidate label in the run-off, despite the fact that she is a black woman. For more on this, head on over to the Yellow Man's blog.
Helena Moreno (D): She is the former WDSU-TV morning anchor ... she apparently has a campaign team in place, according to the Gambit Weekly's Scuttlebutt. I don't know enough about those folks to evaluate whether they're good or not, I just know they are on the ground working.
Byron L. Lee (D): You just knew that there were going to be a West Banker in this thing ... and this time, it's Mr. Lee, who is currently a Councilman for District 3 in Jefferson Parish, which, from the map provided by the Jefferson Parish Council, includes Terrytown, Gretna, Marrero, Harvey, Westwego and Kenner. The question here is whether the West Bank will vote for one of their own, rather than anyone else running, which is another reason why Jefferson was able to slip into a run-off last time, if I recall correctly.
Cedric Richmond (D): He's a State Legislator representing HD 101, which is New Orleans East. He's done some good, some questionable, and has a campaign manager. He's in his final term in the State House.
Now for those looking at it ...
Juan LaFonta (D): He was recently elected to his first full term in the State House, after having been elected to fill out someone else's term in 2005. He represents HD 96. If anyone knows whose term he filled out, please let me know. Lafonta is currently the Chair of the Black Legislative Caucus in the House.
And finally, those definitely NOT running:
Derrick Shepherd (D): This is no suprise, considering that he has been indicted by the US Attorney's office for helping a convicted felon launder money. He did finish 3rd in the jungle primary back in 2006.
With apologies to The Reduct Box, I changed the title for clarity.
This afternoon, Democratic State Rep. Cedric Richmond struck a blow for Louisiana by pushing and passing an amendment to HB 906, written by Republican State Rep. Nita Hutter which is a bill that requires the Ethics Board to do the following (emphasis added):
"A certified copy of the vote; a detailed explanation of the matter, including the specific factual allegations upon which the board based its decision to investigate; and a copy of any complaint received by the board, which includes the name of the complainant and the name of any other person providing information that the board has considered in the matter shall be sent by certified mail to the accused and the complainant within ten days after the vote occurs or after receipt of a signed sworn complaint.
I have one BIG problem with this bill, in that it provides absolutely no protection for whistle-blowers. A copy of the complaint shall be sent to the accused within 10 days of a vote or a signed sworn complaint? Now our legislators never have to worry about their staff turning them in, if the staffer wants to keep their job, anyway.
But that amendment ... ahhh, it's beautiful. State Rep. Cedric Richmond convinced a majority of his colleagues to restore the original standard of substantial for all complaints that the Ethics Board must prove in order to have a judge adjudicate the matter. Here are the results of the vote:
The red = Republican. Blue = Democrat. There are two Independents in the House - Richard (YES) and Robideaux (NOT VOTING), with 48 GOPers in the House and 54 Democrats. There is one vacancy, thanks to Cazayoux's election to the US House.
Do you notice something? A majority of the Republians voted AGAINST this amendment. There are 48 GOPers in the State House. Thirteen (13) voted YES, twenty-eight (28) voted NAY, and seven (7) didn't vote. Thus, Republicans voted to make it harder for corrupt politicians to be found guilty of ethics charges.
And the Republicans say they are the reformers? Wake up, Louisiana, your Republican politicians are lying to you, yet again.
Political commentators always talk about "safe seats" when handicapping future races. But safe districts do not mean a safe seat. 
Because loud rumors suggest 
Party
Candidate
Now the great realignment begins. The 2010 Census results were released over the past 24 hours, and the truth has been revealed.
IN a 
The red = Republican. Blue = Democrat. There are two Independents in the House - Richard (YES) and Robideaux (NOT VOTING), with 48 GOPers in the House and 54 Democrats. There is one vacancy, thanks to Cazayoux's election to the US House.
