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[UPDATE] I'm shocked I forgot about the only member of the Cajun Caucus in the House. I've also added more thoughts on Mr. Carville and Mr. LaFleur below.
The Sinning Senator Vitter's re-election campaign thus far has been focused on ensuring that no Republican dare challenge the Sinning Senator. We've had rumors of one, two, three, four Republicans considering the race, only to have said rumored candidate send out a press release endorsing the Sinning Senator.
Of course, that leaves Stormy Daniels as the only GOPer willing to challenge the Sinning Senator from his right.
But what about the Democrats? Here are some tidbits before going in depth on a FOUR (new) rumored candidates:
- We're still waiting on Shaw Chairman Jim Bernhard's decision.
- Former Congressman Chris John has yet to issue a Sherman-esque statement stating that he is NOT a candidate.
- State Senator Rob Marionneaux seems to be out of the running, but one never knows.
- Former Congressman Don Cazayoux was just recommended by Senator Landrieu to be the USA for the Middle District of Louisiana, and if confirmed, that takes him out the race.
An anonymous friend of the Kingfish sent this mini-essay on a potential candidate that they'd like to see in declare for the Senate race:
There are rumors floating around that Hunt Downer, former Speaker of the Louisiana House of Representatives and current Major General (Army National Guard), may be considering a run against Sen. David Vitter in next year's United States Senate race. Downer is a Republican who switched parties to run for governor in 2003 and was a Democrat since 1975 prior to that. Besides serving as Speaker of the House from 1996-2000, he served in the Blanco administration as both Secretary of Veterans Affairs and the Governor's Legislative Affairs Director.
Downer is a native of Houma and has gained a statewide reputation throughout his career as a bipartisan dealmaker. Initially supporting Jindal after the '03 primary, he went to work for Blanco showing a willingness to serve despite party affiliation. For the 2010 Senate race, there is a very slim chance that Downer would run as a Republican, but rather as an Independent, or potentially, a Democrat. After serving in a Democratic administration, he is no longer on Bobby Jindal's A-list.
So what are the pros and cons of each of these scenarios? If Downer runs as an independent, he is likely to struggle in fundraising yet easily land much of the conservative, military, and veterans vote if Vitter remains the R candidate. This would place the Democrat in a potentially tough position, as Downer would likely take all or most of the "crossover" vote that a D would need to win.
Conversely, if Downer were to switch parties and align himself with Sen. Mary Landrieu, he could paint himself as a "Louisiana-first, people-before-politics, independent Democrat" whose party left him. Assuming no other viable Dem runs and Downer gets through the primary, he would be in a VERY strong position to be the next Senator from Louisiana. Of course, depending on his D opposition, he might struggle a bit with the farthest left constituencies and the minority vote in the primary. But, he would run very strong with the mostly conservative Dems and many Republicans statewide, especially in military-heavy parishes like Bossier and Vernon that usually go deep red. And, I'm sure Dems would pump national money into the race with a viable and respected candidate in order to knock off Vitter.
A few thoughts on Mr. Downer:
- Party switchers don't win in Louisiana unless they are an incumbent. See Mr. Downer's spectacularly failed gubernatorial run in '03, or State Senator Walter Boasso's sad gubernatorial campaign in '07, or Treasurer John Kennedy's comical Senate campaign last year. Examples of incumbents winning re-election as members of the other party are legion; State Treasurer Kennedy's re-elect in '07 is simply the latest example.
- Mr. Downer switched parties because the Louisiana Democratic Party left him? Huh? Mr. Downer left the Democratic Party in a quixotic bid to become Governor, spurred on by the sweet whispers of President George W. Bush. He was the Louisiana Golden Boy for the national GOP apparatus that year, until Governor PBJ upended that strategery by whipping him amongst GOP voters in the jungle primary.
- We don't need another Republican-lite candidate to take on the Sinning Senator Vitter. We got that in 2004, when Chris John had the Louisiana Democratic Party fawning all over him ... all the way to a 29% finish in that year's Senate jungle primary. What folks want to hear about in this economy is what the government will be doing for them. All the good folks in Louisiana have heard is how the Sinning Senator is "standing up for them" by opposing anything the Obama Administration wants. We need a counter-point, and Senator Landrieu has not been providing that.
Another rumored candidate is the Ragin' Cajun himself. This rumor has been bandied about on Louisiana Democratic email lists ever since it became known that Mr. Carville and his family moved to New Orleans so Mr. Carville could teach a class at Tulane.
Mr. Carville would have absolutely NO problem drawing money, crowds, and contrasts between himself and the Sinning Senator. It would be a memorable campaign just for the zingers that we'd be laughing our asses off at darn near every day.
But I doubt that Mr. Carville will put his family through the stress of a Senate campaign.
Yet another rumored candidate is New Orleans City Council President Arnie Fielkow. But I agree with most of what Jeffrey over at Library Chronicles about a Fielkow candidacy:
Even if he had anything approaching Vitter's money (which he doesn't and won't), Fielkow has no chance ever ever ever to win a statewide race against David Vitter. Vitty sits comfortably on the sweet spot of the Louisiana political pulse while Fielkow's position is something like a blood-starved necrotic wart. Vitter is an incumbent Senator with strong wingnut flag-waving cred, and a growing reputation in the anti-whatever-the-Obama-Administration-wants-at-the-moment teabag movement.
Arnie is a stilted and soft-spoken moderate (which will play as EXTREMELY LIBERAL in a statewide race) midwesterner with a political base confined to the whiter precincts of Orleans parish who was recently in the news speaking against a recently passed anti-gay adoption law.
The part I disagree with is that Fielkow will play as extremely liberal. He's a moderate, good-government Democrat. However, I do not think it is realistic to expect the rest of the state to elevate a City Council President to the U.S. Senate. Particularly the City Council President of New Orleans.
The final rumored candidate is State Senator Eric LaFleur. He's a 45 year old partner in a law firm bearing his name, married to a physician's assistant, and served as a State Representative from 2000-2007 until his election to the State Senate in 2007.
He's LOVED by the NRA for being the author of the "castle doctrine" bill in Louisiana (which provides civil immunity to victims of crime who lawfully use deadly force to protect themselves and their families against a violent attack), yet is also a champion of real ethics reform, particularly reform that promotes transparency in government.
A decision by Mr. LaFleur about a Senate campaign against the Sinning Senator will not come until after this year's legislative session. I hope he elects to run, as I think he'll surprise people.
Here's the update:
There is a fifth rumored candidate ... Congressman Charlie Melancon. Charlie has been repeatedly asked to consider a statewide bid, and every single time he's passed, usually saying something along the lines of:
"Never say never, but I'm not contemplating a run at this time."
Charlie is being pressured, yet again, by unnamed political insiders, according to this Politico story, to consider a bid against the Sinning Senator.
I think Charlie would make a fine Senate candidate for an open seat, but I am not sure he has the fire in the belly to wage an all-out war against the Sinning Senator. In addition, another concern is redistricting. The Louisiana Family Forum is currently circulating a plan that will merge the 3rd District with the African American precincts of the the current 2nd and 6th Districts. I don't see the Legislature doing that so long as Charlie is the Congressman from the 3rd District. If he chooses to run against the Sinning Senator Vitter, all bets are off.
All that aside, I'll be surprised if Charlie elects to run for the Senate. He's got real power in the House, and he runs the Blue Dog Caucus. Why would he want to start all over again in terms of seniority in the Senate?
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