If there was one race that Democrats should look positively upon during the 2011 statewide elections, it's that of Attorney General. There are several factors that contribute to making this race a lot more interesting, and winnable, for dem politicos.
First, as a race that is largely guided by the choices lawyers make, the Attorney General's race is heavily influenced by the Democratic-leaning legal community. It's not to say that big-time lawyers aren't giving heartily to Republicans in Louisiana (see sop at Slabbed for more insight on this angle). However, some of the biggest fish in the money pond play in the AG's race on the Democratic side, making this a potentially well-financed race for any serious Democratic challenger with lawyer bona-fides.
Second, Buddy Caldwell is a vulnerable incumbent. He was lustily attacked by Republicans in the 2007 run-off against Royal Alexander, but to no avail. Caldwell had already contributed to the vicious knee-capping of unpopular AG Charles Foti by continuing to gin up Foti's involvement with a botched prosecution of nursing home operators. Caldwell's entry into the run-off assured a victory in a time when an AG could count on large Democratic majorities to come home in any contest. Caldwell thinks he saw the tide shift, but he might have jumped too soon. Like fellow switcher Norby Chabert, Caldwell was a lifelong Democrat with strong ties to old Democratic groups such as the District Attorneys' association. While alliances have shifted toward Republicans of late, Caldwell was not seen as the most dominant candidate in 2007 (rather a lucky one), and will now have to spend considerable time explaining to a virulent GOP base why he spent all but one year of his life as a Democrat. Caldwell's joining of the Affordable Care Act suit by the States might have served as the necessary red meat a year ago, but with the steam running out of that pursuit it carries slightly less weight than it might have. Furthermore, vast questions about Caldwell's motivation for that suit remain.
When looking at the potential candidates, it's important to recognize that we'll have a much clearer picture as we round the first fundraising post next week. But as it stands, let's talk business:
Senate President Joel Chaisson (D-Destrehan) - Widely circulated rumors have discussed the term-limited Chaisson is a serious contender for the Attorney General's office. He's a well-connected in the legal world and apparently well-suited to help finance any campaigns himself. As Bobby Jindal's choice as Senate President, Chaisson effectively steered the august body of the legislature through redistricting and budget chaos. His voting record is moderate, and despite the legislature's turn to the right, Chaisson walked the tight-rope between that of a business-friendly deal-maker and a steward of critical education and healthcare priorities. And he's got money in the bank:
The second most interesting thing about the financial filings was the surprising (or accidental) reveal of Senate President Joel Chaisson's intentions. Campaign filings, although required by the form, do not always contain an answer to "office sought." However, Chaisson's assertion that his fundraising was with intention to seek "statewide office" is great news for Louisiana Progressives. Chaisson has a successsful law practice in Destrehan, and has no trouble fundraising, especially from the well-resourced network of trial lawyers. His report of $179k is not overwhelming, but it is a good start and enough to make him a serious contender against Buddy Caldwell. The current AG has a sizable $466k on hand, but also represents a year worth of fundraising. Chaisson hasn't really even gotten started, and if he were to enter the AG race, he would have no trouble raising his tally significantly. Besides just having a (D) next to his name, Chaisson actually has a fairly moderate voting record. Chaisson has straddled LABI-backing with a fairly good record on environmental and education issues. Of course, this is Louisiana, so "moderate" is a relative position. More importantly, Chaisson is well-respected by his fellow legislators, and well-connected throughout the state.
Chaisson is the number 1 contender in this race, if he decides to get involved.
Former Rep. Joe Cao (R-New Orleans) - Fresh off a beating in the LA-2 Congressional race by Cedric Richmond, Cao has turned his ministry toward that of Attorney General. While Cao is a lawyer who taught ethics and philosophy at Loyola, he certainly wouldn't be the most experienced litigator at the helm of the State's AG office. After a long Hamlet act over the Health Care Reform Bill (which he voted for, before he voted against), Cao weakly claimed that ghost-provisions in the ACA would have paid for abortions (of course, the Hyde Amendment already bans Federal Funds from assisting in abortions). Never mind the facts, Cao betrayed his constituents and they punished him for the Benedict Arnold performance by putting a reliable vote in the chamber.
Cao's screwed either way here: He voted for Health Care Reform, which will kill him among the wing-nuts and tea-baggers in Louisiana. Then he voted against the signature achievement of the Obama White House, which doesn't exactly endear him to Democrats who might consider him as a choice over the recent-Republican Buddy Caldwell who sued the Federal Government over the ACA.
It's hard to imagine how Cao could fundraise among GOP circles with his track record on Heath Care Reform. And without the money, it's hard to imagine how he leaps out of his New Orleans base to statewide office.
James "Buddy" Caldwell (D R-Ferriday): As described above, Buddy has several issues coming into his reelection campaign. First, of course, is his recent conversion to the GOP. He will claim he was conservative the entire time and that he sued over the Health Care law as proof. But Caldwell doesn't have much else to hang his hat on besides that fact. He was heavily supported by Democrats in 2007, and smashed Royal Alexander, the Republican candidate, heartily. Caldwell was also a target of GOP attacks, many of which were nasty in nature:
Caldwell has some work cut out for him, but if Republican voters have no where else to go, he can't worry too much. His worst nightmare is if someone like Jeff Landry were to step into the race. Any question about that will be answered soon after Justice gives word on the Congressional map. If Landry is set to battle Boustany, and victory does not look certain, Landry might be highly encouraged to try the AG's office on. And Caldwell will be in serious trouble if that's the case.
In fact, we'd like to invite you to join Louisiana United for Change in recognizing both the President's 100 Days of Progress and "YES WE CAN" as well as Congressman Joseph Cao's 100 days of "No We Can't" this Wednesday, April 29th.
We will be gathering outside Congressman Cao's New Orleans office this Wednesday at 4pm to call on him to start representing the struggling Louisianan middle-class by supporting the President's efforts to turn the corner on the worst economic crisis in generations.
Representative Cao and the Republican Party of No overwhelmingly opposed transformational legislation signed into law by President Obama that is helping lay a solid foundation for economic growth by strengthening the middle class, including legislation to expand children's healthcare program for 4 million kids in need, legislation to help ensure women receive equal pay for equal work, and a jobs and economic recovery plan that is ahead of schedule and under budget towards creating or saving 3.5 million jobs and providing 95 percent of Americans with tax relief.
On the heels of Representative Cao's most recent opposition to President Obama's historic budget plan, local constituents will call on the Congressman to change course, abandon the failed policies of the past, and support the President's blueprint for long-term economic growth through transformational investments in healthcare, education, and clean energy when it comes back to floor of Congress for a final vote as soon as this week.
What: Rally to call on Rep. Cao's to stop saying "No We Can't" to his constituents. Where: Congressman Cao's District Office
If you haven't watched the ad, please take a moment to do so and then read what you can do RIGHT NOW to get involved with the efforts to deliver on healthcare, education, and energy reform both today and in the weeks and months ahead.
So how can you help today to help deliver REAL CHANGE?
First, you can commit to attending Wednesday's event by contacting LA United for Change by emailing:
morgan AT americansunitedforchange DOT org
Second, you can write a letter to the editor (LTE) to your local newspaper in support of the President's budget and the path it provides us to comprehensive health care, energy and education reform.
Third, you can call Congressman Cao to let him know you are tired of "No We Can't" and that it's time for "YES WE CAN" both at his local number and DC office:
Local - (504) 483-2325
DC - (202) 225-6636
We hope you'll take a moment to get involved and hope to see you this Wednesday or at future events!
Stay tuned for more....
Rebuild & Renew America NOW! on the web.
Americans United for Change on the web.
With 492 precincts in this district, we'll likely not be done anytime soon. The New Orleans precincts that Jefferson will be counting on to push him over the top will likely not come in until 10 PM CST.
With all 492 in:
Candidate
Votes
% of Vote
Joseph Cao (R)
33,122
50%
Bill Jefferson (D)
31,296
47%
Malik Rahim (G)
1,880
3%
There are still 101 precincts to come in from New Orleans itself. The newspapers and CNN are calling it for Cao. Holy crap, a wingnut Republican just won in a majority black district. We're gonna have no Democratic representation in the House, save for Charlie Melancon.
And for the Third District State Senate seat, there are 87 precincts to report. With 78 of 106 in:
Happy Election Day New Orleans ... this morning, y'all have the opportunity to vote in one of the last federal elections of this incredible 2008, as well as a Senate District 3 election featuring an outsider and a son of a New Orleans political dynasty.
The Congressional race is between Dollar Bill Jefferson and his dishonest Republican opponent, Joe Cao. Adrastos makes a good point that both our fathers taught us ... if someone spends time telling you that they are honest, they're usually lying. By the way, you're gonna wanna click on the link to Adrastos ... he's some nice pictures of the mailers that the Republicans are putting out there for Cao.
For instance, Cao was on Jeff Crouere's radio show yesterday, and another NOLA Blogger, Daniel Z., called in to ask Cao about the Family Research Council endorsement he received. (For those of you who don't know the FRC, it was started by James Dobson, and the Louisiana chapter is run by Tony Perkins ... who is considering a 2010 primary challenge against Vitter). Here's Daniel Z's account of the exchange:
So when I had the opportunity to ask him three questions I asked him:
A) Did you actively seek the endorsement of the FRC?
B) Do you accept the endorsement of the FRC?
C) Do you agree with the ideals of the FRC?
He answered the first answer truthfully. However, on the other two questions, he danced around the answer by saying how he does support the family and many people in this area support families. Well, that argument is like saying "I am a patriot so of course I support the Patriot Act". And because he answered like a typical politician, and did not reject the extremist conservative ideals of the FRC.
I have a hard time believing that a Republican candidate running for office in Louisiana doesn't have an idea who the FRC is. For some reason, Oyster thinks Cao is a "babe in the woods." You don't get into bed with the LA GOP and not know who the FRC is, Oyster. Sorry.
Dollar Bill is crooked. Everyone knows that. But he is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. While his lawyers are playing the delay game by asking the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals to hear his appeal of the trial court's refusal to dismiss the case en banc, and then will likely appeal that to the Supreme Court, I am confident that at some point next year, Bill Jefferson will be convicted.
But that does not mean I want a Family Research Council supported candidate representing New Orleans for the next two years, regardless of what he claims is a progressive agenda. He will not be voting in favor of EFCA. Dollar Bill, if still in office, will.
On the State Senate race, J.P. Morrell is the son of former State Senator Arthur Morrell, who now serves as the Criminal Court Clerk and City Councilwoman Cynthia Hedge-Morrell. Shawn Barney is a financial consultant who grew up in New Orleans. His father was the head of the New Orleans chapter of the Urban League.
This is a Democratic district, so both candidates will be good on the issues. I get the feeling that J.P. Morrell is facing the heat of a well-run Barney campaign, as his campaign is likely the culprit behind the rumor that "Jefferson convinced Barney to run to boost turnout in the black precincts of New Orleans." The rumor troubled the Barney campaign enough to blast out a press release disputing the allegations:
At a time when his district lies devastated and our economy is in shambles, J.P. Morrell is smearing Shawn Barney to distract the voters from the fact that Morrell represents more of the same. It is an absolute lie that Congressman Jefferson convinced Shawn Barney to stay in the race for State Senate District 3 despite Morrell's endorsements by the old political establishment.
Mr. Morrell is scared because despite the fact that the status quo is supporting him, his increasingly desperate campaign to protect his family's dynasty is not resonating with voters.
Morrell is out of touch, therefore he is resorting to dirty tricks to hide from the voters of District 3 the fact that his only accomplishment while in office was his vote to give himself a 200% pay raise. Shawn Barney is a fresh face with new ideas who has brought millions of dollars in private redevelopment to District 3, while creating over 100 jobs in the metro area. J.P. Morrell may be a self described avid video game player, but he is not a serious candidate for public office.
Ouch ... Morrell voted to give himself a raise during the first go-round by the legislators in the legislative pay raise debacle? Talk about being short-sighted.
I'll be live-blogging the results this evening. Check back here at 8 PM CST.
mocrats should look positively upon during the 2011 statewide elections, it's that of Attorney General. There are several factors that contribute to making this race a lot more interesting, and winnable, for dem politicos. 
