HOW CAN STATES LIKE LOUISIANA
BECOME PLAYERS IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
Last week, this column analyzed how only a handful of states will be both relevant and make any substantive difference in next year's presidential election. Under the present system, it's a "winner take all" contest, where the state's electoral votes go to the top vote getter. In a red state, like Louisiana, a Republican voting majority is a dead cinch. So why should the candidate for president pay any attention to die hard red or blue states where campaigning is of little value? How about this? Maybe there is a way for my home state of Louisiana to become a major player.
There is no doubt about the Democratic nominee. The president is running for reelection, but has little chance for any gains in Louisiana and the Deep South. But the Republican nomination is wide open, with a number of candidates actively in the running. The primary season kicks off on January 16, with the Iowa caucuses. Here is what takes place before it is primary election day in Louisiana.
Monday, January 16, 2012: Iowa caucuses
Tuesday, January 24: New Hampshire
Saturday, January 28: Nevada caucuses, South Carolina
Tuesday, January 31: Florida
Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday): Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, Montana Republican caucuses, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah
Saturday, February 11: Louisiana primary
Not only will there be a number of elections before Louisiana's primary, the cost factor has become a big legislative issue. The cost for a primary in the Bayou State is $6 million, no chump change in a year with a real state budget crisis. The Louisiana Legislature is searching for ways to fill a void of some $1 billion less than was available last year. Some legislators are suggesting calling off the primary all together and letting the political parties choose delegates to their respective national conventions as they each see fit.
Louisiana political commentator John Maginnis wrote recently about why there is little enthusiasm for a state primary. "If like four years ago, only a quarter of Republicans who are about 25% of registered voters, vote in the presidential primary, overall participation will be about 6%. The arithmetic frames this question for our Legislature: is the opinion of 6 percent of Louisiana voters worth almost $6 million, or about $30 a vote, to find out?"
So is there anything Louisiana can do to save $6 million, yet still have a significant impact on who will be the next president? Yes! And at no cost. Louisiana is the only state in the country that has a late 2011 election already scheduled. It's the regular gubernatorial election where many races will be on the ballot with a significant statewide turnout. Therefore, instead of wasting $6 million in election costs, the Bayou State could be the first in the nation to have a vote on who will be the respective party nominees.
It need be only a non-binding beauty contest. Both Republicans and Democrats could hold caucuses in the spring of next year to pick their respective delegates. But as far as giving the nation an indication of how voters are thinking nationally, Louisiana could, at no cost, be the first state to hold a presidential primary.
It would be an understatement to say that the candidates from both parties would flock to the deepest of the deep southern states. It is the first chance, particularly for the current long list of Republican presidential wannabes, to build momentum and show strength. It would be unwise for any candidate, particularly within the republican ranks, to pass up making a significant campaign effort in Louisiana.
A Louisiana presidential election tied to the gubernatorial election this fall would also put some additional heat on the candidates to focus on Louisiana issues. Put them on the spot when it comes to drilling in the Gulf, revenue sharing, and coastal erosion. Here's what the speaker of the Florida House of Representatives had to say in commenting on Florida moving its primary up to next January: "Moving up the primary would force presidential candidates to pay more attention to issues that are important locally, like soaring property insurance rates." Hello! Sounds like what Louisiana officials should be saying.
Iowa has the process of sucking in presidential candidates down to a science. The have the first of the nation's primary voting through their caucus system that will take place in January of 2012. But they take gambit one step further by having a second "mini-caucus" this coming August. As Mike Murphy in Time magazine wrote this week: "It's an essentially phony contest that forces the candidates to start earlier, visit more often, book more hotel rooms and put more friendly Iowans on the payroll to organize the vast logistics of getting all those would-be voters..." out to vote. Hillary Clinton spent $29 million in 2008 Iowa caucus, with other candidates spending millions more.
If Iowa can get the various candidates to genuflect all over the Hawkeye state and garner huge media attention over 10,000 voters at a caucus, it would seem for Louisiana to be a no brainer to tie in a straw vote for president at the same time as this fall's gubernatorial election. The Louisiana legislature is in session right now. A simple minor change in the election law will allow the presidential straw poll in November, and pull millions of dollars into the state, and cost the taxpayers nothing. No other state has such an opportunity.
The Scots have a saying that opportunities are never lost; someone will take the one you miss. There is a win-win opportunity available for Louisiana if its political leadership is wise enough to seize the moment.
"Opportunity is often missed because we are broadcasting when we should be tuning in." Jackson Browne
Peace and Justice
Jim Brown
Jim Brown's syndicated column appears each week in numerous newspapers and websites throughout the South. You can read all his past columns and see continuing updates at http://www.jimbrownusa.com. You can also hear Jim's nationally syndicated radio show each Sunday morning from 9 am till 11:00 am, central time, on the Genesis Radio Network, with a live stream at http://www.jimbrownusa.com.
If you click here, it'll open up an Excel spreadsheet that will allow you to roughly determine the number of delegates based upon the percentage of the vote each candidate receives in the remaining states on the Democratic side.
That includes some 25,000 or so early voters, according to the Sec State.
Come on Louisiana Democrats, prove our GOPer Secretary of State wrong, and put fear into the hearts of every GOPer running this fall. Let's ROCK THE VOTE!
UPDATE: This morning, when I went to vote, my wife and I were voters #35 and 36 at our polling location on LSU's campus at 8 AM. That's better than what happened during our gubernatorial elections this fall, when I was voter #68 at 2 PM. I just hope we exceed turnout in every precinct in every precinct in the state.
UPDATE II: Welcome Politico readers. Ben, thanks for the traffic. If you want results for LA tonight, just come on back here, as I'll be updating vote counts every 10 minutes or so direct from the Sec State's office.
Louisiana must still be in the "mists". I voted around 11AM. The woman at the poll told me that only 43 people had voted so far.
Then I went home and made 20 phone calls from the Obama website. These were all to western Louisiana. I got a ton of "no longer in services". I had one person hang up because the person I was calling wasn't at home. But every person I reached had or was going to vote for Obama - WITHOUT EXCEPTION.
UPDATE IV: Sorry for the delays in posting this, trying to update in between breaks of filing taxes for clients. I received this email from the Obama campaign:
Ryan --
We have received reports that some folks who believe they are registered Democrats are being turned away from the polls because their names do not appear on the list.
If you believe you are a registered Democrat and a poll worker tells you that you cannot vote, you have the right to vote a provisional Democratic ballot.
Don't leave the polls without voting a provisional ballot, and make sure you share this information with everyone you know who is voting.
For more information, check out our Voter Protection Center and know your rights:
As y'all know, I've wrestled with this over the last few months. Most of my family, and quite a few of my friends and colleagues are voting, or have voted, for Hillary Clinton.
While I respect her as a Senator, and as an advocate for the least among us, this election is about more than just turning the corner on the Bush years. It's about who want we want to be as a country, and where we want to go. Both candidates will be a welcome change ... and both will lead our nation to more progressive place. But I remain unconvinced that Hillary can persuade independents to vote for her in a general election.
I believe what we need now is a game-changer. We need someone who can bring new people into the Democratic Party, particularly the young, who are our future, and keep them in the Democratic fold for generations to come. And Barack Obama is that game-changer.
Many folks say he doesn't have experience. I say look at his record in Illinois. Just because it's not the U.S. Senate does not mean that state legislatures don't deal with serious issues. Here's just one example of his work in the Illinois Senate - he brought competing interests together in Illinois on the issue of requiring the police to videotape confessions. Here's the background:
This seemed likely to stop the beatings, but the bill itself aroused immediate opposition. There were Republicans who were automatically tough on crime and Democrats who feared being thought soft on crime. There were death penalty abolitionists, some of whom worried that Obama's bill, by preventing the execution of innocents, would deprive them of their best argument. Vigorous opposition came from the police, too many of whom had become accustomed to using muscle to "solve" crimes. And the incoming governor, Rod Blagojevich, announced that he was against it.
I mean, dang. The GOPers were ready to gut him, his fellow Democrats were scared of the bill, the new Governor announced he was against it. Last but not least, the police associations were opposed to it as well, going so far as to say "this means we won't be able to protect your children." And yet, Barack was able to get the bill passed in the Illinois Senate unanimously, and he convinced the Governor to sign it.
Many folks say his plans are not as detailed as Hillary's. Hell, I said that earlier. But what we need is not a detailed policy wonk. We need someone who can convince people to vote Democratic, even when there is significant opposition on the GOPer side, which there will be with John McCain. And I'm just not convinced that voters will allow Hillary the opportunity to convince them to vote for her. I know with Obama, they'll listen with an open mind.
But the biggest reason that I want to see Obama win the nomination is this:
It matters a lot more whether our nominees can bring in a tsunami of new congresspeople than whether they have a slightly better policy paper on education reform. We should dare to think big. And, because almost all of us have no memory of living in a country with a progressive ruling majority, we simply cannot dream big enough. In my opinion, Clintonism, the Democratic Leadership Council, triangulation, or whatever you want to call it, is a philosophy for an era of conservative dominance, and it is wholly inappropriate for the times we are about to enter into. In fact, it may be the only thing that can prevent a new progressive era from arriving at all.
Obama kicked some butt in Iowa, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Kansas, Idaho, and North Dakota. Do you notice something about those states? With the exception of Iowa, they rarely, if ever, vote Democratic in Presidential elections. Obama will boost Democratic turnout in those areas, which can only help Democratic candidates in those states. And if they vote Democratic all the way down the line, we'll have a Congress that can work with a Democratic President without having to worry about achieving a supermajority (60 votes) in the Senate.
I've been noticing that folks are not even aware that Hillary has outlined a specific plan for New Orleans, which she did waaaaaaaaaay back in May 2007. Those folks are, predictably, Obama partisans. Please note that this does not construe an endorsement, as I have yet to make up mind. But in dealing with misinformed Obama partisans, it makes me want to vote for Hillary, as they don't even know what they are talking about.
Let's look at Hillary's plan and Obama's plan. First, let's look at Hillary's plan, as it was released first. Please note that the bold highlights similar proposals:
Elevate the Gulf Coast Federal Rebuilding Director
As president, Senator Clinton would take the federal rebuilding coordinator out of the Department of Homeland Security bureaucracy and put him in the West Wing, reporting directly to the president. She would meet with the Director weekly and grant him full authority to lead all federal participation in Gulf Coast recovery. The Director's first order of business would be to conduct a Katrina/Rita Recovery Census -canvassing all federal assistance needs of Gulf Coast communities.
Cut Red Tape
Senator Clinton would take a series of immediate, concrete steps to move federal dollars to where they belong. She would eliminate the local match requirement for FEMA recovery funds. She would streamline and simplify the "project worksheet" process of securing FEMA public infrastructure grants, and deploy sufficient staff to clear backlogs. For priority projects, she would provide upfront seed funding to jumpstart rebuilding while applications and claims are processed. And she would direct FEMA to give the maximum flexibility allowed by law to schools, fire stations, and other critical institutions for creative rebuilding and renovation. She would also convene a state-local-federal summit to resolve challenges confronting Louisiana's "Road Home" program, with the goal of removing the remaining federal obstacles.
Attract Workers to Rebuild New Orleans and the Region
As president, Hillary would create a Gulf Coast Corps, governed by a joint federal-state-local board. The Corps would have two tracks: (1) it would provide financial incentives to skilled professionals - teachers, doctors, nurses, etc. - to serve in high-need areas as identified by state and local officials; and (2) it would directly hire thousands of workers and apprentices - especially locals and those who left but want to return - to complete priority public works projects, as identified by the states. The first track would fill shortages of key personnel who perform essential services. The second track would provide well-paying jobs to restore and upgrade core infrastructure - fire stations, parks, hospitals, roads, sewer and water systems - so that businesses can function effectively and residents can reestablish their communities and reclaim their culture.
Build a Reliable Hurricane Protection System So There is Not Another Katrina
There are still clear gaps and deficiencies in the city's hurricane defenses. Senator Clinton would immediately order an independent, stem-to-stern review of the Army Corps of Engineers' plans and progress thus far. She would fully fund and expedite construction to ensure the city has reliable defenses this hurricane season, and would order the Corps to achieve Category 5 protection over time. And, because every 2 to 4 miles of wetlands reduces storm surges by a foot, she would require the Army Corps and other federal agencies to integrate a wetlands restoration plan as a vital component of hurricane protection efforts.
Expand Affordable Housing
In addition to addressing Road Home, Senator Clinton would pursue two specific policy initiatives. First, she would address the skyrocketing cost of insurance by: investigating insurance pricing and claims adjustment practices in the Gulf region; reforming the National Flood Insurance Program; reviewing the insurance industry's antitrust exemption; and working with states to support their insurance programs. Second, she would expand the stock of affordable rental housing by: partnering with states and localities; funding new public housing developments; offering incentives to builders and developers; and providing direct assistance to residents who have lost their units, including those living in transitional housing.
Combat Rising Crime and Give First Responders Needed Tools
The murder rate in New Orleans has spiked, while the police ranks have dwindled. Senator Clinton would provide sufficient COPS and Byrne Grant funding to put two hundred new police officers back on the beat in New Orleans, to fill vacancies in prosecutors' offices, and to help the city deploy new crime-fighting technologies and methods in partnership with local community leaders. Senator Clinton would also confront the challenge of interoperability by setting national communications standards and providing funds for equipment upgrades.
Build 21st Century Schools in New Orleans
The schools in New Orleans suffered hundreds of millions in damage, and remain in various states of disrepair. Senator Clinton would renovate and modernize school facilities through the Gulf Coast Corps. The Corps would also fill the large teacher shortage - officials are anticipating 650 vacancies alone in the Recovery School District. In addition, Senator Clinton would direct the EPA to provide technical assistance through its "Tools for Schools" program to help New Orleans build modern school facilities that are energy efficient, free of lead, mold and other pollutants, and designed to maximize fresh air and sunlight.
Revitalize a Lagging Health Care System
A recent survey reported that more than a third of greater New Orleans residents reported less access to quality health care than before the storm. As president, Senator Clinton would deploy the Gulf Coast Corps to rebuild hospitals and clinics, especially those that serve the under- and uninsured. She would recruit health care workers - doctors, nurses, mental health professionals - through the Corps. And she would provide Community Mental Health Block Grants to address a growing mental health care crisis.
Promote Smart Development
In addition to supporting and extending federal incentives to stimulate a thriving Gulf Opportunity Zone and to support small businesses, Senator Clinton would direct federal agencies to provide technical assistance to help individuals and communities build energy-efficient "green" homes and buildings, environmentally friendly public transit systems, and modern parks and recreation areas.
Revamp Federal Disaster Response So We Are Ready Next Time
To avoid a repeat of the catastrophic failures of the Bush Administration, Hillary would immediately pursue two proposals she has offered in the Senate: elevate FEMA to cabinet-level status; and establish a Katrina/Rita Commission - modeled on the 9/11 Commission - to review what went wrong and what changes are necessary. She would modify the Stafford Act to add a Catastrophic Annex and would direct FEMA to work with folks on the ground to develop preparedness and response plans and lines of authority. As president, she will be ready to respond the moment a disaster strikes.
1. "When I am President, we will finish building a system of levees that can withstand a 100-year storm by 2011, with the goal of expanding that protection to defend against a Category 5 storm. We also have to restore nature's barriers - the wetlands, marshes and barrier islands that can take the first blows and protect the people of the Gulf Coast."
2. "When I am President, the days of dysfunction and cronyism in Washington will be over. The director of FEMA will report to me. He or she will have the highest qualifications in emergency management. And I won't just tell you that I'll insulate that office from politics - I'll guarantee it, by giving my FEMA director a fixed term like the director of the Federal Reserve."
3. "And as soon as we take office, my FEMA director will work with emergency management officials in all fifty states to create a National Response Plan."
4. "When I am President, the federal rebuilding coordinator will report directly to me, and we will ensure that resources show results. It's time to cut the red tape, so that the federal government is a partner - not an opponent - in getting things done."
5. "Instead of giving no-bid contracts to companies headed by the President's former campaign manager, we will make sure that rebuilding benefits the local economy. I have worked across the aisle in the Senate to crack down on no-bid contracts, and to make sure that emergency contracting is only done immediately after an emergency. When I am President, if there is a job that can be done by a New Orleans resident, the contract will go to a resident of New Orleans. And we'll provide tax incentives to businesses that choose to set up shop in the hardest hit areas."
6. "We must work with Louisiana to make the Road Home program more efficient. We should set a goal to approve every application for Road Home assistance within two months. And we need to increase rental property, so that we can bring down the cost of renting a home."
7. "Instead of shuttered hospitals and provider shortages, we will help the Gulf region rebuild a health care system that serves all its residents. We'll provide incentives like loan forgiveness to bring more doctors and nurses to New Orleans, and we'll build new hospitals - including a new Medical Center downtown, and a state-of-the art Veteran's hospital."
8. "We'll start a new COPS for Katrina program to put more resources into community policing, so that heroic officers - men and women like Nicola Cotton, who gave her life serving the city she loved - have more support. And we'll launch a regional effort that brings together federal, state and local resources to combat crime and drug gangs across the Gulf Coast."
9. "It's time for FEMA to speed up payment of the $58 million that Congress recently allocated for school repairs. And it's time to invest in education, so that New Orleans has the first-class school system that it has needed for so long."
10. "That starts with the person standing in front of the classroom. Many heroic, high-quality teachers have returned to New Orleans - but we need more. That is why I have called for $250 million to bring quality teachers back to the Gulf region. Any teacher or principal who commits to come here for three years should receive an annual bonus; and those who teach in subject areas where we face shortages - such as math and science - should receive an additional bonus."
11. "The federal government has already promised the resources, but they need to be spent more efficiently and more wisely. When I am President, we will target funds to programs that make a difference, and make sure that resources meet the needs of the people - and that means working closely with state and local officials, and asking that they keep up their end of the bargain."
So there ya have it, Louisiana. Their proposals are essentially the same, though I would argue that Hillary's plans are more detailed. So for all y'all Obama people ... stop spreading bullshit. The facts are NOT on your side on this one.
Over the last few months, I have been going over and over in my head the reasons for voting for each of the candidates I thought had the best chance of being the Democratic nominee - Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama. At first, because of John Edwards full-throated support of economic populism, I was planning on voting for him. Now that he's no longer a candidate, I have to make my decision, like you, between Hillary and Barack.
While I fondly remember the Clinton years, mainly because it seemed that the future was rosy, I harbor doubts about Hillary's ability to help grow the Democratic Party in the South and the Midwest, where we need to regroup, and regrow the grassroots.
Many folks here in Louisiana remember the days that candidates and their supporters would come knocking on their door, asking them how things were, and what they thought was the direction the country should go in on various issues, and letting them know that the Democratic Party was listening to them. For some reason, the Party got away from that. Now, we have essentially written off the South and the Midwest in Presidential elections, and we have paid dearly for it. After all, since 1980, we have seen GOPers in the White House for 20 of those 28 years.
I am heartened, somewhat, of Hillary's ability to work with upstate NY Republicans during her time in the Senate, and push economic stimulus proposals for that area. That ability is largely why she faced no significant opposition in her re-election campaign in 2006. In addition, she has worked to find common ground with her GOP colleagues in the Senate on issues like adoption with Senator Coburn of Oklahoma (who's certifiable, by the way), and military issues with Senator Graham of South Carolina.
However, as a speaker giving a speech, she does not inspire me. However, during debates, she impresses the hell out of me, as she is so damn knowledgeable about the issues, and we need someone who has an in-depth understanding of our nation faces with regards to health care, the economy, the war in Iraq, and on and on.
On the other hand, Senator Obama is easily the best speaker we have seen since Bill Clinton. And in some ways, he is better than Bill. After all, Barack is bringing in more new voters and more new donors with his campaign than we have ever seen. I mean, Gawd, $32 million in a month?!
He's obviously got the intelligence and intellectual curiosity that is necessary in a President. My concerns with him lie with the plans he has put forward dealing with the mess that will be left behind by our current Chimp-in-Chief. They are very vague when it comes to details, ostensibly to garner more supporters attracted to a call for "better health care" or "ending the culture of corruption in Washington."
The second concern I have is his inexperience in dealing with the GOP smear machine. He didn't really face it during his 2004 run for the Senate in Illinois. The press has largely given him a pass on the scrutiny they subjected Hillary to back in the day, though some "Democratic" bloggers over at MyDD are attempting to change that. Search in the diaries, if you want to see what they're posting.
Last month, I penned a post detailing the garbage that we will all have to get used to if Obama is the nominee ...
and it will only get worse. That being said, I have no doubts about his ability to persuade people that he's the one to vote for in a general election against the presumptive GOPer nominee John McCain. He's won more states than Hillary, though he's losing in the delegate count, largely due to the superdelegates that Hillary has convinced to support her.
Sadly, I am no closer to a decision now. So all I can say is this - Hill-Rack the VOTE.
Will be updated every hour ... starting at 8 PM.
Remember ... it's all about delegates, not whether a candidate "wins" a state.
We won't be able to figure out the delegate totals until all the votes are counted on the Democratic side, as they are given out proportionally, most of the states do it by CD, with about a fourth of them doing it proportionally by vote totals.
First, I was disappointed that the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina was not mentioned by either candidate during the debate. While the two candidates could have invoked the Gulf Region on their own, I don't think the questions lent themselves to doing so.
Barack and Hillary had their differences, but they did so respectfully, unlike the backyard brawl that was the Republican debate last night.
I'm thrilled that this debate was substantive on the issues that matter in people's lives - health care and how we get to universal health care, immigration and job loss, the economy, and more.
As for the debate itself:
Hillary had the best one-liner tonight ...
"It took a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush. And it might take another Clinton to clean up after this Bush."
... but Barack had the best argument tonight ...
"It's important to be ready on Day One, but it's also important to be right on Day One."
But seriously, look at that picture. They seem awfully chummy, no? Could you imagine a Clinton/Obama ticket? What if they make a deal - 4 years of Hillary, then she'd step aside for Barack. After all, she's 60. She'll be 61 next January. By the time 2012 rolls around, she'll be 65, the age most folks are retiring.
I have spoken with many folks - older folks, Democrats and Republicans, black and white - who have said they won't vote for Obama because they don't think he has the experience to be President yet. This would take care of their concerns, as Obama would get on-the-job training as Vice President, especially since Hillary would give Obama the same type of portfolio Gore and Cheney were given. And having Obama as the VP would ensure that the Democrats continue bringing new people into the party, and engaging more and more of America into civic life again.
It's an idea. One I think worth considering. Your thoughts?
Lamar over at CenLamar has been documenting the nasty whisper campaign allegedly being pushed by crazy, nutto right-wing Ron Paul supporters. That means Republicans are pushing this thing. Big surprise there, as we are talking about the party that sought to divide Americans on racial issues in their quest for 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for the last 30 years.
The Obama campaign has put out a damn good commercial fighting back.
This afternoon, presidential candidate John Edwards ended his campaign. Here's his speech, on YouTube, courtesy of CNN:
I'll always be thankful for his advocacy of the poor, and of New Orleans. I don't expect him to stop working to end poverty ... I think his fight has just begun.
DAAAAY-um ... talk about a smack-down. Here's South Carolina's results, if you haven't already seen them:
Obama: 55% Clinton: 27% Edwards: 18%
In terms of the raw total of voters, Obama garnered more than a 2 to 1 advantage, with 295,000+ to Clinton's 141,000+.
This one's going to the covention, folks. While friends of mine think that this spells doom for Hillary, as it may show that she cannot win in the South, I think it's too early, and the dynamics are much too fluid, to make that call yet. I think that Bill, with his overaggressive politicking for Hillary, and his injection of race into this primary, hurt Hillary and that swung voters into Obama's camp in South Carolina. I think there is plenty of time for Hillary to erase the hurt that Bill gave her campaign. Whether she does, of course, is another question.
It's going to be interesting to see what happens on Super Tuesday, with 22 states, 1 protectorate and the Democrats Abroad group holding primaries/caucuses for the Democrats, and 21 states holding primaries/caucuses for the Republicans.
The text of the speech is below the jump. Forget party affiliations for a moment ... this speaks to me as a human being. It's probably the best speech I've heard Obama give, either in person or on the internets.
Hillary Clinton: 50.76% Barack Obama: 45.14% John Edwards: 3.76%
Uncommitted got 0.3% and Congressman Dennis Kucinich got 0.05%. I think it's time for Dennis to drop out and give his .05% to someone!
Here's what I take from these numbers:
This is going to be a long, and drawn out battle. I want to see what happens in South Carolina before declaring Edwards dead, even though I have sneaking suspicion that he is, based on polling in the teens in his home state of South Carolina.
However, Obama is probably going to need to pull out a victory in South Carolina to keep his chances of winning the nomination alive. If he doesn't, I think he'll end up losing the big state on Super Tuesday - California.
Edwards' role in this is to be the spoiler. If he hangs around, and neither Clinton nor Obama pull a clear majority of the delegates (say, 60%+, Edwards' will be in a envious position in Denver ... he'll have the power to decide the nomination.
As y'all know, I have yet to declare my preference for one of the Democratic candidates running for President. I think any of the three left - Clinton, Edwards, and Obama - will defeat any nominee that the GOP puts up. But it will not be without a fight. And it will be a knock-down drag out brawl worthy of city politics in New York, Chicago, or hell, even New Orleans.
We all know what they're gonna say about Clinton. We will re-fight all the bullshit put out there about them back in the 1990's.
They'll call Edwards a commie, a socialist, perhaps even resurrect the angry meme they used against Howard Dean.
But Obama ... oh, the darkest aspects of our society will be on display for all to see. And whomever the GOP nominee is, I hope and pray that he'll have the decency not to engage in it, as I fear that asking him to denounce it would much too much to ask.
"Obama is holding his own against both of [the Clintons]- doing more than his share of the 'spade' work. Maybe even gaining ground at the moment. Using not only the spade ladies and gentleman- that when he finishes with the 'spade' in the garden of corruption planted by the Clinton's, he turns to the 'hoe.' And so the spade work and his expertise using a hoe."
-- Rush Limbaugh, being incredibly unfunny.
"He is often lazy, given to misstatements and exaggerations and, when he doesn't know the answer, too ready to try to bluff his way through."
-- Karl Rove, describing Sen. Obama.
Well, Mitt Romney staved off defeat tonight in his native state of Michigan, living to fight another day. This was important for the following reason - it denied McCain momentum going into South Carolina, where he will go toe-to-toe with Mike Huckabee.
The best case scenario for Democrats is that Huckabee and McCain end up within the 2-3 percentage points of each other in South Carolina next week, and Giuliani somehow manage to take Florida. Then we'll see a free-for-all all the way to the GOP Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul.
By now, y'all know that Hillary surprised the pundits and won New Hampshire. Not surprisingly, Barack Obama finished second, with John Edwards lagging well behind them, with less than half the # of votes that Obama received.
The next contested caucus/primary will be in Nevada on the 19th of January, despite a primary that will be held in Michigan on January 15th. Michigan has defied the Democratic National Committee by scheduling it so early, and for some idiotic reason, both Edwards and Obama chose not to put their names on the ballot for the primary there. Hillary made the smart move and put her name on the ballot there. So, she will win Michigan's delegates by default unless Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel somehow pull off a bigger upset than Appalachian State beating Michigan in the Big House.
On a side note, the DNC has made noise about not seating Michigan's or Florida's delegates at the Convention. Yeah, right. They'll make a deal, the only question is whether any penalty will handed down.
I believe that Edwards now has to win either Nevada or South Carolina to make this a three-horse race. If he can't do so, I think he's done. I like his message about standing up and fighting for the people, but something about him rubs me the wrong way ...
I believe it will become a horse-race between Hillary and Obama ... with young folks and new voters flocking to Obama, and older folks going for Hillary. The question is where will the women go?
This year's election is truly a battle for soul and the future of our nation. All of the Democratic candidates - Clinton, Edwards and Obama - have great ideas on what to do regarding the challenges facing our country after 7 years of nothing but the occasional rhetorical flourishes of compassionate conservativsm. No matter whom the nominee is, we will all win when one of them takes the oath of office on January 20, 2009.
CNN is projecting that John McCain will win the New Hampshire primary a mere 12 minutes after the polls have closed.
This means that Mitt Romney is done. It's over for him. He will not be the Republican nominee for President, joining Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Ron Paul as also-rans.
The GOP primary is going to come down to John McCain and Mike Huckabee. My money's on McCain, as the GOP establishment, (which does exist, contrary to George Will's protestations to the contrary) absolutely hates Mike Huckabee, as he represents the gate crashers of the GOP - the religious right.
As part of the series mentioned below, this was such an impressive speech that I'm including it here. This does not mean that I've come to a decision about whom I will vote for, because I have not yet made up my mind.
As part of a new series showing the ads that Democratic Presidential Candidates are showing to appeal to voters, I will be putting up ads of the Big Three - Obama, Edwards and Hillary.
First, I was disappointed that the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina was not mentioned by either candidate during the debate. While the two candidates could have invoked the Gulf Region on their own, I don't think the questions lent themselves to doing so. 
DAAAAY-um ... talk about a smack-down. Here's South Carolina's results, if you haven't already seen them:
With 90.47% reporting:
