House Speaker Jim Tucker, R-Algiers, says he is leaning toward running for secretary of state this fall. Tucker, who cannot seek another term in the House, said he will come to a decision in the next few weeks. "I am more likely to run than not run," he said.
Secretary of State Tom Schedler, a St. Tammany Parish Republican, is the unelected incumbent and has said he will be a candidate for the job. Schedler moved up from first assistant when Jay Dardenne was elected lieutenant governor.
Rep. Walker Hines, R-New Orleans, and Democrat Caroline Fayard of New Orleans, an unsuccessful candidate for lieutenant governor last year, have also indicated they will seek the office.
Democrat-turned-Republican Scott Angelle of Breaux Bridge, secretary of the Department of Natural Resources and Gov. Bobby Jindal's chief legislative liaison, reportedly is also interested in making the race. Angelle could not be reached.
Tucker's potential candidacy is no surprise, and we discussed his positives and negatives in this piece on the 'fish. However, one addendum to that analysis must be his eventual scuttling of the SUNO-UNO merger bill. This controversial bill will no-doubt be highlighted by any of Tucker's Democratic (or even Republican) opponents to dull any of his potential advantages in the New Orleans area and to rally support for voters to cast votes against Tucker as a protest. By dropping the bill, Tucker avoided the most bruising parts of the SUNO-UNO battle, and is probably responsible for burying the issue. This works to his advantage in the fall.
The real wildcard is DNR Secretary Scott Angelle. Tucker has become no real friend of the Jindal administration during the past few legislative sessions. Especially this year, Tucker often was a thorn in Jindal's side, often out-flanking him on the right on financial issues, and thwarting oarts of Jindal's privatization agenda. With these apostasies by Tucker, Jindal is likely trying to encourage his bosom-buddy, Angelle, to enter the SoS race. Why? As Maginnis says, it's all about 2015. If Jindal can install Angelle into a Statewide position, he'll be better situated to take over as Governor when Jindal slithers away onto bigger and better things. It's still unclear whether Angelle will get into this, or the Lieutenant Governor's race. In the end, both races are attractive for Angelle, although the LG is a step closer to the Governor's mansion. Angelle still has many friends among powerful Democrats, and many believe that he's still really a Democrat at heart. He would likely get the endorsement (or endorsement by neutrality) from several prominent Democrats even if Fayard were in the race.
Even without Jindal's support, Tucker is likely to be a very strong candidate among the business elites and fundraisers. Jindal would likely back Angelle in any case, but it might help. Jindal's record of endorsements is abysmal. It's almost to Angelle's benefit if Jindal stays out.
Monday is the first filing deadline for Statewide candidates. We'll know more very soon.
By announcing she would seek the SoS spot, Fayard gambled that it would be the path of least resistance to some elected office. The SoS job is currently held by an anonymous appointed-incumbent that ended up raising no campaign dollars during his 5 months at the helm. The only other announced suitor at the time of Fayard's announcement was Walker Hines. And we've said enough about his political skills to give you an idea of what kind of competition he might pose.
With her relatively high name recognition, mountains of personal cash and, most importantly, weak Republican competition, Fayard stood a good chance winning the seat as it stood on May 5th. However, one wildcard was left that could upend her smooth path to victory. Scott Angelle has been widely rumored as a candidate for both SoS and Lieutenant Governor. He's seen as a rising star in the Republican party after switching parties last fall. Angelle would have immediately caught the inside track and made Fayard's path to victory nearly impossible.
Tucker has many virtues as a candidate, including prodigious fundraising ability, high name recognition as Speaker of the House, close ties with Republican movers, and a large statewide financial network. He also has had allies across the aisle in New Orleans at times in the past.
However, Tucker has hobbled himself lately on two counts. First, his defiance of the Jindal's dictum on the State Budget has been widely noted. Second, and even more importantly, Tucker is carrying one of the most divisive pieces of legislation for the Governor, the SUNO-UNO Merger Bill. This instrument was crafted to attack New Orleans, and especially Black Democrats in New Orleans, under the guise of Higher Education reform. Jindal picked this target, as opposed to the many other public schools ripe for reform throughout Louisiana because it was the easiest for him to do. He doesn't care about New Orleans, or about African-Americans, and therefore, this is an easy move for him. It even bolsters him with conservatives since it is thinly-veiled racism wrapped in a good government glove, their favorite kind.
For Fayard, however, Tucker's partisan race-baiting only helps her solidify her support among African Americans in any potential race. Instead of the generic R, Tucker becomes a white-hot issue himself, as the flag-bearer of an assault on an African-American institution. Tucker could have appeared to be the reasonable, moderate, pro-business Republican that is a shoe-in for any statewide election. However, his attacks on Jindal's budget, combined with his SUNO-UNO bill, undermine his credibility among many politically-engaged Louisianians on both sides of the aisle.
Fayard went from facing sure disaster with the entry of Scott Angelle, to facing a much more favorable opponent in Jim Tucker. Whatever his virtues, it's hard to imagine how Tucker does not himself become a lightning rod for criticism from Democrats. Without his SUNO-UNO bill, Tucker would have inspired little passion and probably nominal support among Democrats.
Now, no doubt to Fayard's delight, Tucker must answer for SUNO-UNO.
Sources tell FOX 8 News the feds are asking for every contract since 2007, every project work sheet since 2007 and payroll records on a handful of employees.
Nungesser has recently been churning up the waters about a run against Jay Dardenne for Lieutenant Governor. He has skewered Dardenne over the dispersal (pardon the pun) of BP-sponsored Tourism dollars. Nungesser thinks coastal communities affected by the BP spill should receive the majority of the money. We agree. But since the formula was determined before Dardenne entered office, it seems more like Billy is using this as a galvanizing issue to spark his campaign. From the Gambit:
Before leading the Downtown Irish Club's St. Patrick's Day parade as the club's Man of the Year, Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser was pressing the flesh with GOP stalwarts at the Jefferson Parish Pachyderm Club's cochon de lait March 15, leading many to speculate he will run for lieutenant governor in the fall against fellow Republican Jay Dardenne.
Nungesser seemed to be picking a fight with Dardenne on March 9 when he publicly groused about Dardenne's distribution of the first tourism payout from BP — $5 million of an eventual $30 million boodle to be spread across all 64 parishes. Dardenne pointed out, correctly, that the deal had been made before he took office in November 2010, and he was just distributing the funds;
Another potential Lieutenant Governor candidate, Scott Angelle, is also in the news. The Big Oil Lobby (no, really) gave Scott Angelle, Department of Natural Resources Secretary, their "Blue Heron" Environmental Award (no, really) for his "tough" and "fair" regulation of the industry. Former Congressman, current head oil lobbyist and permanent slimeball Chris John:
"The secretary has been tough, but fair in regulating the industry," John said. "At the same time, he has been very supportive in his advocacy of the state's citizens who work in our industry and depend on its survival."
Politically, it was a stellar move for Angelle. Of course, preaching to wingnuts and financially-strapped oil field workers doesn't demand a high standard of reality. All red meat, all the time. Angelle is a lapdog for the Jindal Administration, and if Bobby is going to duck out of the Governor's office early, he'd really like to have a toadie like Angelle to take the reigns. That fuels the already rampant speculation that Angelle will enter the Lieutenant Governor's race this fall.
One place Angelle won't have trouble raising money from? The Oil Lobby. And around and around the Louisiana Carousel goes. Since oil slipped out from beneath the bayous, they've been in running the show, one way or another. Meet Scott Angelle, Big Oil's favorite son, and maybe your next Governor.
The only announced Democratic candidate in LA-03, Ravi Sangisetty, released his fundraising numbers:
Candidate
Money Raised
Money Spent
Debts
Cash on Hand
Ravi Sanisetty (D)
$250,000 +
~ $25,000
n/a
$225,000
A first time candidate raising $250,000 is mighty impressive, especially in this state, where far too many Democrats struggle to raise any money at all for their campaigns.
And if there are any Democrats still mulling whether to get in the race or not, I think Mr. Sanisetty's fundraising haul has made the decision for them, as any candidate would be hard-pressed to raise the money it would take to win a Democratic primary against him at this late date.
There are no fundraising #'s being reported as of yet by presumed Republican front-runner Nickie Monica, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't have a sizable warchest at this point, particularly since he's been fundraising since July. There are two other Republicans running - a New Iberian by the name of Kristian Magar, and Jeff Landry, who lost to State Senator Troy Hebert in 2007, reported that he raised over $96,000 in December, and lent his own campaign $20,000 to have approximately $115,000 in the bank. I'd love to see a GOP primary drain the survivor's bank accounts, but we'll see.
Now, on to the rumors ... I've been hearing folks whisper about the Department of Natural Resources Secretary Scott Angelle running for this seat since August. The only problem is that he doesn't know which party he wants to run in, as he was a Democrat back when he served as St. Martin's Parish President and I believe is still a registered Democrat, but as The Houma Today informed us back in August:
When asked this week if he had been approached by state or national Republican Party officials about making the switch, Angelle said no.
"I haven't been contacted by the Republicans or the Democrats or the Libertarians or Greenpeace or any kind of organized political group," he said, laughing. "No."
In a follow-up query by e-mail, he was also asked if he would even consider making the leap.
"Several longtime friends have suggested it over the years and again more recently," Angelle replied. "It is something that I would consider, like (former President) Ronald Reagan, (former Gov.) Mike Foster and (former U.S. Congressman) Billy Tauzin."
And for all those Democrats out there who think Mr. Angelle would be a great candidate to have, y'all should know that he spent his New Year's weekend down in Cameron Parish hosting a fundraiser for none other than Governor PBJ.
Working for a Republican Governor is one thing, but hosting a fundraiser for one? That ain't the mark of a Democrat, y'all.
It looks like Caroline Fayard might snap her string of [self-imposed] bad luck. After months of rumors, speculation and some PR blunders, 
It just so happened that yesterday was a banner day in a race no one is talking about. 
