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Push Poll Can’t Propel Any GOPer Over Mary Landrieu in ’14

Mitt Romney’s pollster, Public Opinion Strategies, has a new Louisiana Senate poll out.

Those words alone should make you suspicious, considering the utter incompetence of the Romney polling apparatus in 2012.

Let’s not digress, however, and get straight to it!

Mary Landrieu is well-positioned against ANY GOP candidate, EVEN when respondents are subjected to one-sided, push polling in favor of the Republican. Top-lines, in a 4-way jungle primary:

  • Mary Landrieu – 47%
  • John Fleming – 15%
  • Bill Cassidy – 14%
  • Chas Roemer – 6%

Run-off, between Sen. Mary Landrieu and Cong. John Fleming:

  • Landrieu – 49%
  • Fleming – 45%

And then the push polling began:

After testing opposition research points on each candidate, Fleming pulls further ahead of Cassidy on the informed ballot, and Landrieu drops some more. We tested eight opposition research points on Landrieu (focused on her spending and health care record), five opposition research points on Fleming, and just three on Cassidy.

The post-oppo informed ballot was 38% Landrieu, 32% Fleming, and 20% Cassidy.

Without a concluding, post-opposition research, run-off, we can’t really know for sure. But certainly, after pummeling Mary (and in a vacuum against a static, defense-less caricature of the candidates, especially Mary), it can’t be very encouraging that the GOP candidate isn’t even able to pull even with Landrieu.

Oh, and the Fleming/Cassidy match-up (in a mythical, straight for the beltway RSCC conversation of a partisan primary), Fleming pulls ahead after ANOTHER push element.

  • Fleming – 51%
  • Cassidy – 32%

Wow, lots of scurrilous push polling going on here. No wonder Romney didn’t know where the fuck he was.

Here’s the actual poll memo (paid for by Fleming).

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