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Edwin!

He’sssss baccckkkkkkkkkkk…..

Putting aside the should he, shouldn’t he aspects of this election, the key point is: He. Can. Not. Win.

This is not 1991. Garrett Graves is not David Duke (we think). (Maybe Graves is Buddy Roemer).

But there’s no David Duke in the GOP field that’ll allow Edwin the win the “moderate” middle and carry him into a “vote for the crook, it’s important,” style situation.

Ain’t going to happen in 2014.

Louisiana CD6 is one of the country’s most Republican districts. In fact it is the 21st MOST Republican district (out of 435 districts nationwide). See the Cook PVI here (R+24 for the link-averse). Only Steve Scalise’s Putin-esque R+26 is more Republican in Louisiana. Willard “Mitt” Romney won LA06 66%-32%. You’re welcome.

Edwin Edwards is not 15 points more “moderate” than Barack Obama, let alone 30, even if he is 15 shades whiter (not saying Louisiana Republicans oppose Obama because he is black, but mostly because BENGHAZI!!!!!! no doubt).

LA06 is 71% white. Let’s pretend that Edwin wins his customary share of African-American vote (at least 90%). He’d be well-positioned to make the run-off (although the district votes even WHITER than registration). Some older whites like him, and there’s a ton of nostaligia amongst some who remember the good-ole-times of the Edwards hayrides. But, our guess is those voters are basically a rump of their former self, mostly having defected to the GOP at this point. Hence, whatever he drags with him into the runoff will be his last stand.

A Republican will win this in the fall. Which would have changed exactly zero things than if EWE hadn’t run in the first place. 

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